Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
South Alabama at Texas State, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Texas State beat South Alabama 49–26, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Texas State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Texas State was a 73% favorite.
Final
 South Alabama Jaguars | 26 |
|---|---|
 Texas State Bobcats | 49 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Texas State about even · 0 South Alabama
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. South Alabama wins 0, Texas State wins 10.
- 1 USA 7 TXST 20
- 2 USA 10 TXST 31
- 3 USA 17 TXST 42
- 4 USA 7 TXST 35
- 5 USA 7 TXST 38
- 6 USA 14 TXST 49
- 7 USA 13 TXST 49
- 8 USA 14 TXST 54
- 9 USA 7 TXST 52
- 10 USA 3 TXST 55
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
South Alabama wins 0% of them, Texas State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Texas State by 23.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| South Alabama by 17+ | 0.0% |
| South Alabama by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| South Alabama by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Texas State by 1–8 | 1.0% |
| Texas State by 9–16 | 3.2% |
| Texas State by 17+ | 95.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Robles, 36 yds made · 81% expected
- T. Robles, 31 yds made · 88% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: South Alabama 4 for 35 yards, Texas State 6 for 53 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:52 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | +1% USA +0.6 pts |
| Q1 8:50 | Offside on Texas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% USA +2.8 pts |
| Q3 13:36 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards | +1% TXST +1.8 pts |
| Q3 12:32 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | 0% USA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:53 | Holding on Texas State, 10 yards | +1% USA +1.1 pts |
| Q4 9:07 | Illegal Formation on South Alabama, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% TXST +5.2 pts |
| Q4 7:41 | Roughing the Passer on Texas State, 12 yards | 0% USA +1.2 pts |
| Q4 7:34 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards | 0% TXST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:32 | Holding on South Alabama, 10 yards | 0% TXST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:18 | Pass Interference on Texas State, 6 yards | 0% USA +1.8 pts |
When it happened
Texas State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:09 | Texas State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +1% USA | TXST: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 11:33 | Texas State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +3% TXST | TXST: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 10:29 | Texas State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +3% USA | TXST: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 8:50 | Offside on Texas State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% USA | USA: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 6:29 | South Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +2% TXST | USA: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 9:12 | South Alabama was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +2% TXST | USA: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 9:27 | Texas State converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +2% TXST | TXST: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 9:07 | Illegal Formation on South Alabama, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +2% TXST | TXST: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
South Alabama 5% · Texas State 95%
- Final margin
- Texas State by 23
- Luck in points
- 10.0 for Texas State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texas State by 13.0
- Replay with same day's form
- South Alabama 0% · Texas State 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
South Alabama · 
Texas State
More from Week 14 2025
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Arkansas State at App State ARST 30–29 · replay 32% for the winner
- Troy at Southern Miss TROY 28–18 · replay 63% for the winner
- Georgia State at Old Dominion ODU 27–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- James Madison at Coastal Carolina JMU 59–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State MTSU 31–24 · replay 32% for the winner