luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025

James Madison at Coastal Carolina, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

James Madison beat Coastal Carolina 59–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, James Madison wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff James Madison was a 94% favorite.

Final

James Madison Dukes 59
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 10

November 29, 2025 · Brooks Stadium (SC) · Closing line: James Madison −24.5

Luck index 0 James Madison about even · 0 Coastal Carolina

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. James Madison wins 10, Coastal Carolina wins 0.

  1. 1 JMU 63 CCU 0
  2. 2 JMU 56 CCU 0
  3. 3 JMU 51 CCU 0
  4. 4 JMU 45 CCU 0
  5. 5 JMU 50 CCU 7
  6. 6 JMU 40 CCU 0
  7. 7 JMU 47 CCU 10
  8. 8 JMU 36 CCU 3
  9. 9 JMU 34 CCU 7
  10. 10 JMU 28 CCU 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

James Madison wins 100% of them, Coastal Carolina 0%. The line is what actually happened: James Madison by 49.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
James Madison by 17+97.8%
James Madison by 9–161.7%
James Madison by 1–80.4%
Level after regulation0.1%
Coastal Carolina by 1–80.1%
Coastal Carolina by 9–160.0%
Coastal Carolina by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.3 points to James Madison: the final margin was James Madison by 49, without the luck James Madison by 38.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • M. Suarez, 33 yds made · 82% expected
  • M. Suarez, 47 yds made · 59% expected
  • K. Afrookhteh, 34 yds made · 84% expected
  • M. Suarez, 21 yds made · 93% expected
  • K. Afrookhteh, 42 yds missed · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: James Madison 5 for 55 yards, Coastal Carolina 6 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:50 Kick Catch Interference on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards 0% JMU +0.9 pts
Q1 0:00 Intentional Grounding on Coastal Carolina, 0 yards 0% JMU 0.0 pts
Q2 11:21 Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yards 0% CCU +2.7 pts
Q2 4:36 Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yards 0% CCU +2.0 pts
Q3 14:51 Offside on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JMU +0.3 pts
Q4 14:55 Delay of Game on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JMU +2.0 pts
Q4 9:18 Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards 0% JMU +0.6 pts
Q4 8:14 Personal Foul on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards 0% JMU +1.0 pts
Q4 8:14 Delay of Game on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CCU +0.4 pts
Q4 8:14 Delay of Game on James Madison, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CCU +0.8 pts
Q4 4:11 Face Mask on James Madison, 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% CCU +4.4 pts

When it happened

Coastal Carolina’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Coastal Carolina was ahead in it, below while James Madison was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Coastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +0% JMU CCU: Punt
2 Q1 10:36 James Madison converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedCoastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +0% JMU JMU: Field goal
3 Q2 11:21 Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedM. Suarez made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 1 of 4 from 45+ beforePass Interference on James Madison, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% CCU CCU: Field goal
4 Q2 4:36 Pass Interference on James Madison, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% CCU CCU: Touchdown
5 Q3 15:00 James Madison was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedJames Madison fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +1% CCU JMU: Field goal
6 Q3 10:15 Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedCoastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedM. Suarez made a 21-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +1% CCU CCU: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 8:17 Coastal Carolina was stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedJames Madison was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expectedJames Madison converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected +0% CCU CCU: Missed field goal
8 Q3 5:17 James Madison’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +0% JMU JMU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

James Madison 100% · Coastal Carolina 0%

Final margin
James Madison by 49
Luck in points
10.3 for James Madison
Luck-adjusted margin
James Madison by 38.7
Replay with same day's form
James Madison 100% · Coastal Carolina 0% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · James Madison · Coastal Carolina

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