luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025

Arkansas State at App State, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

Arkansas State beat App State 30–29, but the replays lean toward App State: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: pre-snap flags alone were worth 17 points of win probability to Arkansas State.

Before kickoff Arkansas State was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:31 left): Arkansas State fumbled and App State recovered, worth 13 points of win probability to App State.

Final

Arkansas State Red Wolves 30
App State Mountaineers 29

November 29, 2025 · Kidd Brewer Stadium · Closing line: Arkansas State −1.5

Luck index +68 Arkansas State very lucky · −68 App State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Arkansas State wins 3, App State wins 7.

  1. 1 ARST 42 APP 20
  2. 2 ARST 38 APP 28
  3. 3 ARST 24 APP 21
  4. 4 ARST 15 APP 17
  5. 5 ARST 27 APP 31
  6. 6 ARST 6 APP 14
  7. 7 ARST 17 APP 30
  8. 8 ARST 21 APP 38
  9. 9 ARST 17 APP 38
  10. 10 ARST 6 APP 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Arkansas State wins 32% of them, App State 68%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arkansas State by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Arkansas State by 17+7.8%
Arkansas State by 9–169.4%
Arkansas State by 1–814.4%
Level after regulation2.9%
App State by 1–820.5%
App State by 9–1618.1%
App State by 17+26.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to Arkansas State: the final margin was Arkansas State by 1, without the luck App State by 4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • D. De Freitas, 43 yds made · 68% expected
  • C. Van Andel, 24 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. De Freitas, 38 yds made · 78% expected
  • D. De Freitas, 43 yds blocked · 69% expected
  • D. De Freitas, 45 yds made · 64% expected
  • C. Van Andel, 52 yds missed · 53% expected
  • D. De Freitas, 48 yds made · 59% expected
  • D. De Freitas, 29 yds made · 90% expected
  • D. De Freitas, 45 yds missed · 65% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Arkansas State 4 for 40 yards, App State 6 for 28 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:06 Offside on App State, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% ARST 0.0 pts
Q1 4:06 False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% APP +1.6 pts
Q2 11:54 Offside on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap +8% ARST +3.3 pts
Q2 5:12 Kick Catch Interference on Arkansas State, 15 yards +2% APP +0.9 pts
Q3 6:21 False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% APP +0.7 pts
Q3 3:11 Targeting on App State, 8 yards +5% ARST +1.5 pts
Q4 13:00 Face Mask on Arkansas State, 15 yards +3% APP +0.8 pts
Q4 13:00 False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARST +0.5 pts
Q4 8:24 Delay of Game on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ARST +0.8 pts
Q4 1:41 Illegal Formation on App State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +9% ARST +4.5 pts

When it happened

App State’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 93%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while App State was ahead in it, below while Arkansas State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:31 Arkansas State fumbled and App State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% APP ARST: Turnover
2 Q2 6:32 D. De Freitas had a 43-yard field goal blockedKicks · 69% expected for him +8% ARST APP: Punt
3 Q2 1:16 Arkansas State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% ARST ARST: Punt
4 Q3 10:56 C. Van Andel missed a 52-yard field goalKicks · 53% expected for him, 7 of 10 from 45+ before +6% APP ARST: Touchdown
5 Q3 5:33 Arkansas State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% ARST ARST: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:49 Arkansas State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +8% APP ARST: Punt
7 Q4 4:54 App State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% APP APP: Field goal
8 Q4 1:41 Illegal Formation on App State, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +9% ARST ARST: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Arkansas State 34% · App State 66%

Final margin
Arkansas State by 1
Luck in points
5.0 for Arkansas State
Luck-adjusted margin
App State by 4.0
Replay with same day's form
Arkansas State 32% · App State 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Arkansas State · App State

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