luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025

Georgia State at Old Dominion, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

Old Dominion beat Georgia State 27–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Old Dominion wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Old Dominion was a 97% favorite.

Final

Georgia State Panthers 10
Old Dominion Monarchs 27

November 29, 2025 · S.B. Ballard Stadium · Closing line: Old Dominion −28.5

Luck index +3 Old Dominion about even · −3 Georgia State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Georgia State wins 0, Old Dominion wins 10.

  1. 1 GAST 27 ODU 31
  2. 2 GAST 20 ODU 31
  3. 3 GAST 0 ODU 17
  4. 4 GAST 17 ODU 37
  5. 5 GAST 14 ODU 37
  6. 6 GAST 7 ODU 34
  7. 7 GAST 17 ODU 48
  8. 8 GAST 17 ODU 51
  9. 9 GAST 16 ODU 55
  10. 10 GAST 10 ODU 58

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Georgia State wins 3% of them, Old Dominion 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Old Dominion by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Georgia State by 17+0.1%
Georgia State by 9–160.7%
Georgia State by 1–81.8%
Level after regulation0.7%
Old Dominion by 1–85.5%
Old Dominion by 9–169.1%
Old Dominion by 17+82.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.7 points to Old Dominion: the final margin was Old Dominion by 17, without the luck Old Dominion by 5.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • L. Rickman, 36 yds made · 76% expected
  • N. Eichner, 19 yds made · 93% expected
  • L. Rickman, 29 yds missed · 85% expected
  • N. Eichner, 22 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Georgia State 10 for 105 yards, Old Dominion 3 for 20 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:46 Illegal Substitution on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% GAST +0.7 pts
Q1 11:03 Pass Interference on Georgia State, 15 yards +1% ODU +2.1 pts
Q1 8:03 False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ODU +1.0 pts
Q1 5:50 False Start on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GAST +1.2 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ODU +0.8 pts
Q2 11:26 Personal Foul on Georgia State, 15 yards +1% ODU +0.6 pts
Q3 15:00 Delay of Game on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ODU +1.3 pts
Q3 8:58 Pass Interference on Georgia State, 15 yards 0% ODU +0.6 pts
Q3 4:16 Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards 0% GAST +0.6 pts
Q3 4:16 Pass Interference on Georgia State, 15 yards 0% ODU +0.3 pts
Q4 15:00 Targeting on Georgia State, 15 yards 0% ODU +1.3 pts
Q4 10:48 Holding on Georgia State, 10 yards 0% ODU +1.3 pts
Q4 10:48 Delay of Game on Georgia State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ODU +3.8 pts

When it happened

Old Dominion’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Old Dominion was ahead in it, below while Georgia State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:50 Old Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedFalse Start on Old Dominion, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% GAST ODU: Punt
2 Q2 15:00 Georgia State was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedFalse Start on Georgia State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% ODU GAST: Punt
3 Q2 14:49 Old Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +1% GAST ODU: Punt
4 Q2 11:26 Georgia State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedPersonal Foul on Georgia State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% ODU GAST: Field goal
5 Q2 9:43 Old Dominion converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedOld Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +1% ODU ODU: Field goal
6 Q2 5:34 N. Eichner made a 19-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +1% GAST ODU: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:12 L. Rickman missed a 29-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +4% ODU GAST: Punt
8 Q3 12:54 Old Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +1% GAST ODU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Georgia State 22% · Old Dominion 78%

Final margin
Old Dominion by 17
Luck in points
11.7 for Old Dominion
Luck-adjusted margin
Old Dominion by 5.3
Replay with same day's form
Georgia State 3% · Old Dominion 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Georgia State · Old Dominion

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