Sun Belt · 2026 season, in progress

Georgia State Panthers: luck and expected wins

Georgia State is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.6 wins. Luck added 0.4: the 36th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.

2026, game by game

How often Georgia State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs North Carolina A&T	W 59–10	100%	0
Week 2	@ Kennesaw State	W 31–17	62%	+38
Week 3	@ UCF	L 30–44	22%	−22
Week 4	vs Northern Illinois	W 35–14	80%	+20

Wk 1 0 vs NCAT

Wk 2 +38 @ KENN

Wk 3 −22 @ UCF

Wk 4 +20 vs NIU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Georgia State win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Old Dominion	Georgia State by 5.0	62%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at James Madison	James Madison by 19.3	12%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Arkansas State	Georgia State by 0.2	50%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Coastal Carolina	Georgia State by 9.2	71%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at App State	App State by 2.8	43%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Georgia Southern	Georgia State by 5.7	63%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Marshall	Georgia State by 3.2	57%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Louisiana	Georgia State by 0.8	52%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Georgia State’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.23	+20.8
Kicks	+0.10	+5.7
Pre-snap flags	−0.04	+0.8

Luckiest wins

Wins Georgia State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 2	@ Kennesaw State	W 31–17	62%	+38
2026 Week 4	vs Northern Illinois	W 35–14	80%	+20
2025 Week 3	vs Murray State	W 37–21	98%	+2
2026 Week 1	vs North Carolina A&T	W 59–10	100%	0

Unluckiest losses

Losses Georgia State would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 9	vs South Alabama	L 31–38	61%	−61
2025 Week 13	@ Troy	L 19–31	55%	−55
2025 Week 6	vs James Madison	L 7–14	51%	−51
2025 Week 8	@ Georgia Southern	L 24–41	37%	−37
2025 Week 2	vs Memphis	L 16–38	36%	−36

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	1–11	3.6	−2.6	0–2	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Ole Miss	L 7–63	0%	0
Week 2	vs Memphis	L 16–38	36%	−36
Week 3	vs Murray State	W 37–21	98%	+2
Week 4	@ Vanderbilt	L 21–70	0%	0
Week 6	vs James Madison	L 7–14	51%	−51
Week 7	vs App State	L 20–41	0%	0
Week 8	@ Georgia Southern	L 24–41	37%	−37
Week 9	vs South Alabama	L 31–38	61%	−61
Week 11	@ Coastal Carolina	L 27–40	8%	−8
Week 12	vs Marshall	L 18–30	7%	−7
Week 13	@ Troy	L 19–31	55%	−55
Week 14	@ Old Dominion	L 10–27	3%	−3