Sun Belt · 2026 season, in progress

Old Dominion Monarchs: luck and expected wins

Old Dominion is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.6 wins. Luck cost 0.6: the 28th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.

2026, game by game

How often Old Dominion wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Norfolk State	W 31–10	98%	+2
Week 2	@ Virginia Tech	L 21–44	4%	−4
Week 3	vs East Carolina	L 17–20	46%	−46
Week 4	vs James Madison	L 20–46	7%	−7

Wk 1 +2 vs NORF

Wk 2 −4 @ VT

Wk 3 −46 vs ECU

Wk 4 −7 vs JMU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Old Dominion win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	at Georgia State	Georgia State by 5.0	38%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at App State	App State by 4.7	39%
Week 7 · Oct 15	vs Georgia Southern	Old Dominion by 3.9	59%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Louisiana Tech	Louisiana Tech by 4.4	39%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs Marshall	Old Dominion by 7.7	68%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Coastal Carolina	Old Dominion by 1.0	52%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at UConn	UConn by 8.4	31%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Southern Miss	Old Dominion by 7.7	68%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Old Dominion’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.10	+7.3
Kicks	−0.04	+2.2
Pre-snap flags	−0.12	−4.0

Luckiest wins

Wins Old Dominion takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 9	vs App State	W 24–21	56%	+44
2025 StaffDNA Cure Bowl	vs South Florida	W 24–10	63%	+37
2025 Week 10	@ UL Monroe	W 31–6	84%	+16
2025 Week 3	@ Virginia Tech	W 45–26	88%	+12
2025 Week 14	vs Georgia State	W 27–10	97%	+3

Unluckiest losses

Losses Old Dominion would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2026 Week 3	vs East Carolina	L 17–20	46%	−46
2025 Week 1	@ Indiana	L 14–27	39%	−39
2025 Week 7	@ Marshall	L 24–48	10%	−10
2025 Week 8	@ James Madison	L 27–63	10%	−10
2026 Week 4	vs James Madison	L 20–46	7%	−7

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	9–3	8.8	+0.2	1–0	1–0

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Indiana	L 14–27	39%	−39
Week 2	vs North Carolina Central	W 54–6	100%	0
Week 3	@ Virginia Tech	W 45–26	88%	+12
Week 5	vs Liberty	W 21–7	100%	0
Week 6	vs Coastal Carolina	W 47–7	100%	0
Week 7	@ Marshall	L 24–48	10%	−10
Week 8	@ James Madison	L 27–63	10%	−10
Week 9	vs App State	W 24–21	56%	+44
Week 10	@ UL Monroe	W 31–6	84%	+16
Week 12	vs Troy	W 33–0	100%	0
Week 13	@ Georgia Southern	W 45–10	99%	+1
Week 14	vs Georgia State	W 27–10	97%	+3
StaffDNA Cure Bowl	vs South Florida	W 24–10	63%	+37