Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
North Carolina Central at Old Dominion, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Old Dominion beat North Carolina Central 54–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Old Dominion wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Old Dominion was a 92% favorite.
Final
 North Carolina Central Eagles | 6 |
|---|---|
 Old Dominion Monarchs | 54 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Old Dominion about even · 0 North Carolina Central
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. North Carolina Central wins 0, Old Dominion wins 10.
- 1 NCCU 12 ODU 31
- 2 NCCU 13 ODU 42
- 3 NCCU 17 ODU 52
- 4 NCCU 16 ODU 56
- 5 NCCU 7 ODU 51
- 6 NCCU 2 ODU 51
- 7 NCCU 13 ODU 66
- 8 NCCU 14 ODU 72
- 9 NCCU 0 ODU 65
- 10 NCCU 0 ODU 76
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
North Carolina Central wins 0% of them, Old Dominion 100%. The line is what actually happened: Old Dominion by 48.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| North Carolina Central by 17+ | 0.0% |
| North Carolina Central by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| North Carolina Central by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Old Dominion by 1–8 | 0.3% |
| Old Dominion by 9–16 | 0.9% |
| Old Dominion by 17+ | 98.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Robison, 39 yds made · 74% expected
- K. Robison, 27 yds made · 89% expected
- R. Callaghan, 47 yds made · 59% expected
Penalties: North Carolina Central 8 for 89 yards, Old Dominion 6 for 74 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:16 | Holding on Old Dominion, 10 yards | 0% NCCU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 5:16 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Old Dominion, 15 yards | +1% NCCU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 13:39 | Pass Interference on Old Dominion, 14 yards | +2% NCCU +3.6 pts |
| Q2 13:39 | Holding on North Carolina Central, 10 yards | +1% ODU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:56 | Illegal Block on Old Dominion, 10 yards | +1% ODU +2.7 pts |
| Q2 2:22 | Illegal Use of Hands on Old Dominion, 10 yards | 0% NCCU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 2:22 | Holding on North Carolina Central, 10 yards | 0% ODU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 1:54 | Pass Interference on Old Dominion, 15 yards | 0% NCCU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:42 | Personal Foul on North Carolina Central, 15 yards | 0% ODU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 2:16 | False Start on North Carolina Central, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ODU +1.9 pts |
| Q3 0:13 | Unnecessary Roughness on North Carolina Central, 15 yards | 0% ODU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 11:02 | Pass Interference on North Carolina Central, 15 yards | 0% ODU +2.3 pts |
| Q4 6:07 | Block Below the Waist on North Carolina Central, 14 yards | 0% ODU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 2:34 | Offside on North Carolina Central, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ODU +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Old Dominion’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:44 | North Carolina Central was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedOld Dominion fumbled and North Carolina Central recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% NCCU | NCCU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 9:16 | North Carolina Central was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedOld Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +1% ODU | NCCU: End of half |
| 3 | Q1 1:59 | Old Dominion converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +1% ODU | ODU: End of half |
| 4 | Q2 15:00 | North Carolina Central was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +1% ODU | NCCU: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q2 13:39 | North Carolina Central converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedPass Interference on Old Dominion, 14 yardsJudgment callsHolding on North Carolina Central, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +2% NCCU | NCCU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q2 11:04 | North Carolina Central was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedOld Dominion was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedOld Dominion fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% ODU | NCCU: End of half |
| 7 | Q2 7:58 | North Carolina Central converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +1% NCCU | NCCU: End of half |
| 8 | Q2 4:56 | Illegal Block on Old Dominion, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% ODU | NCCU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
North Carolina Central 0% · Old Dominion 100%
- Final margin
- Old Dominion by 48
- Luck in points
- 9.6 for Old Dominion
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Old Dominion by 38.4
- Replay with same day's form
- North Carolina Central 0% · Old Dominion 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
North Carolina Central · 
Old Dominion
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