Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Charleston Southern at Coastal Carolina, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Coastal Carolina beat Charleston Southern 13–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Coastal Carolina wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Coastal Carolina was a 96% favorite.
Final
 Charleston Southern Buccaneers | 0 |
|---|---|
 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +7 Coastal Carolina about even · −7 Charleston Southern
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Charleston Southern wins 1, Coastal Carolina wins 9.
- 1 CHSO 20 CCU 14
- 2 CHSO 7 CCU 10
- 3 CHSO 10 CCU 17
- 4 CHSO 13 CCU 24
- 5 CHSO 10 CCU 24
- 6 CHSO 7 CCU 24
- 7 CHSO 0 CCU 20
- 8 CHSO 7 CCU 30
- 9 CHSO 0 CCU 28
- 10 CHSO 3 CCU 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Charleston Southern wins 7% of them, Coastal Carolina 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Coastal Carolina by 13.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Charleston Southern by 17+ | 0.2% |
| Charleston Southern by 9–16 | 1.1% |
| Charleston Southern by 1–8 | 4.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Coastal Carolina by 1–8 | 11.9% |
| Coastal Carolina by 9–16 | 19.2% |
| Coastal Carolina by 17+ | 61.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Afrookhteh, 21 yds made · 93% expected
- K. Afrookhteh, 29 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Charleston Southern 10 for 82 yards, Coastal Carolina 8 for 80 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:12 | Offside on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CHSO +1.0 pts |
| Q1 9:49 | Roughing the Passer on Charleston Southern, 15 yards | +1% CCU +1.6 pts |
| Q1 9:49 | Illegal Formation on Coastal Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CHSO +1.1 pts |
| Q1 9:49 | Offside on Charleston Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CCU +1.1 pts |
| Q1 3:25 | Delay of Game on Charleston Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CCU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:44 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards | +1% CHSO +1.2 pts |
| Q2 11:12 | False Start on Charleston Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CCU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 7:54 | Roughing the Passer on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards | +1% CHSO +1.9 pts |
| Q2 1:45 | Horse Collar Tackle on Coastal Carolina, 15 yards | +1% CHSO +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:45 | False Start on Charleston Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CCU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 12:19 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards | +1% CHSO +1.8 pts |
| Q3 12:19 | Face Mask on Charleston Southern, 7 yards | 0% CCU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 12:19 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards | 0% CHSO +1.2 pts |
| Q3 8:53 | Holding on Coastal Carolina, 10 yards | +1% CHSO +1.0 pts |
| Q4 12:04 | Offside on Charleston Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CCU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 10:43 | Offside on Charleston Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CCU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 10:43 | Offside on Charleston Southern, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% CCU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 1:04 | Holding on Charleston Southern, 26 yards | +2% CCU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Coastal Carolina’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 7:54 | Charleston Southern was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedRoughing the Passer on Coastal Carolina, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% CHSO | CHSO: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 4:21 | Charleston Southern converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +3% CHSO | CHSO: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 2:55 | Charleston Southern was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +1% CCU | CHSO: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 12:40 | Coastal Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% CHSO | CCU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 12:04 | Coastal Carolina converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expectedOffside on Charleston Southern, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% CCU | CCU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 10:43 | Offside on Charleston Southern, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsOffside on Charleston Southern, 4 yardsPre-snap flags | +2% CCU | CCU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 6:38 | Coastal Carolina converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedCoastal Carolina converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedCoastal Carolina fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% CCU | CCU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 1:04 | Charleston Southern was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedHolding on Charleston Southern, 26 yardsJudgment calls | +2% CCU | CHSO: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Charleston Southern 68% · Coastal Carolina 32%
- Final margin
- Coastal Carolina by 13
- Luck in points
- 15.8 for Coastal Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Charleston Southern by 2.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Charleston Southern 7% · Coastal Carolina 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Charleston Southern · 
Coastal Carolina
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