Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Lindenwood at App State, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
App State beat Lindenwood 20–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, App State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff App State was a 97% favorite.
Final
 Lindenwood Lions | 13 |
|---|---|
 App State Mountaineers | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 App State about even · −3 Lindenwood
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Lindenwood wins 0, App State wins 10.
- 1 LIN 10 APP 14
- 2 LIN 21 APP 31
- 3 LIN 13 APP 27
- 4 LIN 0 APP 17
- 5 LIN 7 APP 27
- 6 LIN 7 APP 31
- 7 LIN 3 APP 30
- 8 LIN 14 APP 45
- 9 LIN 0 APP 35
- 10 LIN 3 APP 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Lindenwood wins 3% of them, App State 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: App State by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Lindenwood by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Lindenwood by 9–16 | 0.8% |
| Lindenwood by 1–8 | 1.9% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| App State by 1–8 | 7.0% |
| App State by 9–16 | 12.4% |
| App State by 17+ | 76.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. De Freitas, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- D. De Freitas, 24 yds made · 92% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Lindenwood 3 for 30 yards, App State 8 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:36 | False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LIN +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:32 | Roughing the Kicker on App State, 15 yards | +1% LIN +4.4 pts |
| Q1 1:59 | Holding on App State, 10 yards | 0% LIN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 14:53 | Penalty on Lindenwood, 15 yards | 0% APP +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:32 | Delay of Game on Lindenwood, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% APP +0.4 pts |
| Q3 12:34 | Holding on App State, 0 yards | 0% LIN 0.0 pts |
| Q3 12:34 | False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LIN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 14:22 | Illegal Formation on App State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% LIN +2.6 pts |
| Q4 11:20 | Illegal Formation on App State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | 0% LIN +1.8 pts |
| Q4 9:08 | Holding on Lindenwood, 10 yards | 0% APP +1.4 pts |
| Q4 3:34 | Personal Foul on App State, 15 yards | 0% APP +0.6 pts |
When it happened
App State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:03 | Lindenwood converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +0% LIN | LIN: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 7:32 | Roughing the Kicker on App State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% LIN | LIN: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 2:32 | Lindenwood was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedDelay of Game on Lindenwood, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% APP | LIN: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 11:55 | App State converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +1% APP | APP: Turnover |
| 5 | Q3 11:13 | App State fumbled and Lindenwood recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% LIN | APP: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 9:18 | App State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +1% APP | APP: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 7:39 | App State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +1% APP | APP: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 3:34 | Lindenwood converted 4th & 143rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedPersonal Foul on App State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% LIN | LIN: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Lindenwood 4% · App State 96%
- Final margin
- App State by 7
- Luck in points
- 5.9 for Lindenwood
- Luck-adjusted margin
- App State by 12.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Lindenwood 3% · App State 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Lindenwood · 
App State
More from Week 2 2025
- Tulane at South Alabama TULN 33–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Texas State at UTSA TXST 43–36 · replay 47% for the winner
- Memphis at Georgia State MEM 38–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- Missouri State at Marshall MOST 21–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- James Madison at Louisville LOU 28–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Troy at Clemson CLEM 27–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- Western Illinois at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- McNeese at Louisiana UL 34–10 · replay 82% for the winner
- Charleston Southern at Coastal Carolina CCU 13–0 · replay 93% for the winner
- Jackson State at Southern Miss USM 38–20 · replay 94% for the winner
- UT Martin at UTEP UTEP 42–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at USC USC 59–20 · replay 100% for the winner