Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Georgia Southern at USC, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
USC beat Georgia Southern 59–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, USC wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff USC was a 97% favorite.
Final
 Georgia Southern Eagles | 20 |
|---|---|
 USC Trojans | 59 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 USC about even · 0 Georgia Southern
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia Southern wins 0, USC wins 10.
- 1 GASO 45 USC 59
- 2 GASO 41 USC 65
- 3 GASO 41 USC 70
- 4 GASO 38 USC 73
- 5 GASO 31 USC 70
- 6 GASO 17 USC 59
- 7 GASO 31 USC 77
- 8 GASO 24 USC 77
- 9 GASO 17 USC 73
- 10 GASO 21 USC 87
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia Southern wins 0% of them, USC 100%. The line is what actually happened: USC by 39.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia Southern by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Georgia Southern by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Georgia Southern by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| USC by 1–8 | 0.8% |
| USC by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| USC by 17+ | 96.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Georgia Southern 1 for 1 yards, USC 8 for 93 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:06 | Offside on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% GASO +1.3 pts |
| Q1 4:24 | Pass Interference on USC, 15 yards | +1% GASO +2.5 pts |
| Q1 1:30 | Illegal Use of Hands on USC, 15 yards | 0% GASO +1.6 pts |
| Q2 12:28 | Illegal Use of Hands on USC, 15 yards | 0% GASO +1.2 pts |
| Q2 0:03 | Illegal Use of Hands on USC, 15 yards | 0% USC +0.3 pts |
| Q3 8:02 | Holding on Georgia Southern, 1 yard | 0% USC +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:24 | False Start on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% GASO +0.8 pts |
| Q4 4:24 | Holding on USC, 10 yards | 0% GASO +1.3 pts |
| Q4 0:30 | Pass Interference on USC, 13 yards | 0% GASO +1.6 pts |
When it happened
USC’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:42 | USC fumbled and Georgia Southern recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% GASO | USC: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 13:06 | Offside on USC, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% GASO | GASO: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 13:01 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedGeorgia Southern’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% USC | GASO: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 7:48 | Georgia Southern was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +1% USC | GASO: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 4:24 | Pass Interference on USC, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% GASO | GASO: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 10:38 | USC converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +0% USC | USC: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 8:55 | USC was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +0% GASO | USC: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 5:26 | Georgia Southern was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +1% USC | GASO: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia Southern 0% · USC 100%
- Final margin
- USC by 39
- Luck in points
- 0.4 for USC
- Luck-adjusted margin
- USC by 38.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia Southern 0% · USC 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Georgia Southern · 
USC
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Tulane at South Alabama TULN 33–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Rutgers RUTG 45–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Texas State at UTSA TXST 43–36 · replay 47% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
- UCLA at UNLV UNLV 30–23 · replay 64% for the winner
- Memphis at Georgia State MEM 38–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- Missouri State at Marshall MOST 21–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- James Madison at Louisville LOU 28–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Troy at Clemson CLEM 27–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- Western Illinois at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 80% for the winner