Week 2 2025 · September 5, 2025
Western Illinois at Northwestern, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Northwestern beat Western Illinois 42–7, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Northwestern was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Western Illinois Leathernecks | 7 |
|---|---|
 Northwestern Wildcats | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Northwestern about even · −20 Western Illinois
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Illinois wins 2, Northwestern wins 8.
- 1 WIU 41 NU 28
- 2 WIU 35 NU 30
- 3 WIU 28 NU 31
- 4 WIU 17 NU 22
- 5 WIU 23 NU 31
- 6 WIU 19 NU 31
- 7 WIU 24 NU 39
- 8 WIU 17 NU 37
- 9 WIU 35 NU 59
- 10 WIU 7 NU 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Illinois wins 20% of them, Northwestern 80%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Northwestern by 35.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Illinois by 17+ | 3.0% |
| Western Illinois by 9–16 | 6.2% |
| Western Illinois by 1–8 | 9.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.5% |
| Northwestern by 1–8 | 21.3% |
| Northwestern by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| Northwestern by 17+ | 38.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Chadha, 48 yds missed · 59% expected
- L. Akers, 35 yds made · 80% expected
- L. Akers, 25 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: Western Illinois 3 for 13 yards, Northwestern 6 for 57 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:15 | Illegal Block on Northwestern, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% NU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 13:22 | Ineligible Downfield on Northwestern, 5 yards | 0% WIU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 12:51 | Holding on Northwestern, 10 yards | 0% WIU +1.0 pts |
| Q2 11:07 | False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WIU +0.4 pts |
| Q2 9:07 | Roughing the Passer on Northwestern, 15 yards | 0% WIU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:20 | Delay of Game on Western Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:41 | Offside on Western Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 12:25 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Western Illinois, 3 yards | 0% NU +1.8 pts |
| Q4 3:20 | Face Mask on Northwestern, 12 yards | 0% NU +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Northwestern’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:31 | Northwestern converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +0% NU | NU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 11:58 | Northwestern converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +0% NU | NU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 10:25 | Western Illinois converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +0% NU | WIU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:44 | Northwestern converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedNorthwestern’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% NU | NU: End of half |
| 5 | Q1 1:15 | Illegal Block on Northwestern, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% NU | WIU: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 12:16 | Western Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +0% NU | WIU: Missed field goal |
| 7 | Q3 11:19 | A. Chadha missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 5 of 7 from 45+ before | +0% NU | WIU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 3:20 | Face Mask on Northwestern, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +0% NU | WIU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Illinois 0% · Northwestern 100%
- Final margin
- Northwestern by 35
- Luck in points
- 9.4 for Northwestern
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Northwestern by 25.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Illinois 20% · Northwestern 80% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Western Illinois · 
Northwestern
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Rutgers RUTG 45–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
- UCLA at UNLV UNLV 30–23 · replay 64% for the winner
- Michigan at Oklahoma OU 24–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Southern Illinois at Purdue PUR 34–17 · replay 93% for the winner
- Charleston Southern at Coastal Carolina CCU 13–0 · replay 93% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Maryland MD 20–9 · replay 93% for the winner
- Lindenwood at App State APP 20–13 · replay 97% for the winner
- Florida International at Penn State PSU 34–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Indiana IU 56–9 · replay 99% for the winner