Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Florida International at Penn State, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Penn State beat Florida International 34–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Penn State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Penn State was a 100% favorite.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Penn State about even · −1 Florida International
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida International wins 0, Penn State wins 10.
- 1 FIU 10 PSU 17
- 2 FIU 7 PSU 19
- 3 FIU 3 PSU 20
- 4 FIU 14 PSU 34
- 5 FIU 0 PSU 24
- 6 FIU 0 PSU 27
- 7 FIU 10 PSU 41
- 8 FIU 17 PSU 52
- 9 FIU 3 PSU 41
- 10 FIU 3 PSU 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida International wins 1% of them, Penn State 99%. The line is what actually happened: Penn State by 34.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida International by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Florida International by 9–16 | 0.3% |
| Florida International by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.5% |
| Penn State by 1–8 | 3.3% |
| Penn State by 9–16 | 7.6% |
| Penn State by 17+ | 87.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Barker, 41 yds made · 73% expected
- R. Barker, 53 yds missed · 51% expected
- R. Barker, 34 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: Florida International 4 for 40 yards, Penn State 1 for 0 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Delay of Game on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% PSU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 7:42 | Pass Interference on Florida International, 15 yards | 0% PSU +1.4 pts |
| Q1 3:16 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards | 0% PSU +1.8 pts |
| Q3 4:44 | Holding on Penn State, 0 yards | 0% FIU 0.0 pts |
| Q3 1:27 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards | 0% PSU +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Penn State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:35 | Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +0% FIU | PSU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 11:31 | Penn State was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +0% FIU | PSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:48 | Florida International was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +0% PSU | FIU: Turnover |
| 4 | Q1 6:30 | Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +0% FIU | PSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 14:54 | Florida International converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% FIU | FIU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 8:36 | Penn State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +0% FIU | PSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 6:29 | Blocked punt by Penn StateSpecial teams | +0% PSU | PSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 1:53 | Penn State converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +0% PSU | PSU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida International 0% · Penn State 100%
- Final margin
- Penn State by 34
- Luck in points
- 3.0 for Florida International
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Penn State by 37.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida International 1% · Penn State 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Florida International · 
Penn State
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Tulsa at New Mexico State NMSU 21–14 · replay 24% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Rutgers RUTG 45–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
- Liberty at Jacksonville State JXST 34–24 · replay 60% for the winner
- UCLA at UNLV UNLV 30–23 · replay 64% for the winner
- Missouri State at Marshall MOST 21–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- Western Illinois at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- Michigan at Oklahoma OU 24–13 · replay 84% for the winner
- Delaware at Colorado COLO 31–7 · replay 88% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Hawai'i HAW 37–20 · replay 89% for the winner