luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025

Iowa at Iowa State, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?

Iowa State beat Iowa 16–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Iowa State wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 18 points of win probability to Iowa State.

Before kickoff Iowa State was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:52 left): K. Konrardy made a 54-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to Iowa State.

Final

Iowa Hawkeyes 13
Iowa State Cyclones 16

September 6, 2025 · Jack Trice Stadium · Closing line: Iowa State −1.5

Luck index +48 Iowa State lucky · −48 Iowa

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Iowa wins 5, Iowa State wins 5.

  1. 1 IOWA 22 ISU 0
  2. 2 IOWA 22 ISU 7
  3. 3 IOWA 21 ISU 10
  4. 4 IOWA 21 ISU 14
  5. 5 IOWA 23 ISU 20
  6. 6 IOWA 7 ISU 9
  7. 7 IOWA 3 ISU 7
  8. 8 IOWA 0 ISU 7
  9. 9 IOWA 0 ISU 13
  10. 10 IOWA 10 ISU 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Iowa wins 48% of them, Iowa State 52%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Iowa State by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Iowa by 17+8.9%
Iowa by 9–1618.5%
Iowa by 1–820.5%
Level after regulation1.6%
Iowa State by 1–828.9%
Iowa State by 9–1613.5%
Iowa State by 17+8.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.8 points to Iowa State: the final margin was Iowa State by 3, without the luck Iowa by 4.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • K. Konrardy, 44 yds made · 65% expected
  • K. Konrardy, 27 yds made · 90% expected
  • D. Stevens, 31 yds made · 88% expected
  • D. Stevens, 36 yds made · 81% expected
  • K. Konrardy, 54 yds made · 48% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Iowa 3 for 25 yards, Iowa State 4 for 32 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:22 Holding on Iowa State, 10 yards +3% IOWA +1.5 pts
Q1 7:21 False Start on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ISU +0.5 pts
Q2 0:34 Holding on Iowa State, 5 yards +6% IOWA +2.5 pts
Q2 0:34 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Iowa State, 2 yards +2% IOWA +0.7 pts
Q2 0:21 Pass Interference on Iowa, 15 yards +2% IOWA +0.8 pts
Q4 12:44 False Start on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% ISU +1.0 pts
Q4 11:22 Pass Interference on Iowa State, 15 yards +8% IOWA +1.8 pts

When it happened

Iowa State’s chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Iowa State was ahead in it, below while Iowa was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:03 Iowa State fumbled and Iowa recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% IOWA ISU: Punt
2 Q2 0:34 Holding on Iowa State, 5 yardsJudgment callsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Iowa State, 2 yardsJudgment calls +7% IOWA IOWA: Touchdown
3 Q3 2:28 Iowa State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% ISU ISU: Punt
4 Q4 13:34 Iowa State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% IOWA ISU: Punt
5 Q4 11:22 Pass Interference on Iowa State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +8% IOWA IOWA: Punt
6 Q4 5:25 Iowa State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +11% ISU ISU: Field goal
7 Q4 3:35 Iowa State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +8% ISU ISU: Field goal
8 Q4 1:52 K. Konrardy made a 54-yard field goalKicks · 48% expected for him, 6 of 11 from 45+ before +16% ISU ISU: End of game

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Iowa 78% · Iowa State 22%

Final margin
Iowa State by 3
Luck in points
7.8 for Iowa State
Luck-adjusted margin
Iowa by 4.8
Replay with same day's form
Iowa 48% · Iowa State 52% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · Iowa · Iowa State

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