Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Houston at Rice, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Houston beat Rice 35–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Houston wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Houston was an 81% favorite.
Final
 Houston Cougars | 35 |
|---|---|
 Rice Owls | 9 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +15 Houston about even · −15 Rice
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Houston wins 9, Rice wins 1.
- 1 HOU 36 RICE 3
- 2 HOU 28 RICE 0
- 3 HOU 30 RICE 6
- 4 HOU 20 RICE 0
- 5 HOU 16 RICE 0
- 6 HOU 23 RICE 10
- 7 HOU 23 RICE 14
- 8 HOU 23 RICE 17
- 9 HOU 14 RICE 12
- 10 HOU 14 RICE 21
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Houston wins 85% of them, Rice 15%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Houston by 26.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Houston by 17+ | 40.4% |
| Houston by 9–16 | 22.2% |
| Houston by 1–8 | 22.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.0% |
| Rice by 1–8 | 9.5% |
| Rice by 9–16 | 3.7% |
| Rice by 17+ | 0.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Gota, 42 yds made · 67% expected
- E. Sanchez, 47 yds missed · 60% expected
Penalties: Houston 2 for 23 yards, Rice 1 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 8:13 | Holding on Houston, 10 yards | +2% RICE +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:15 | Personal Foul on Houston, 13 yards | 0% RICE +0.4 pts |
| Q4 14:42 | Holding on Rice, 10 yards | 0% HOU +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Rice’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:40 | Houston was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedHouston was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% RICE | HOU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 2:22 | Houston converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedHouston converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +4% HOU | HOU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 14:48 | Rice converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedRice converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +5% RICE | RICE: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 0:40 | Houston converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +5% HOU | HOU: End of half |
| 5 | Q3 11:35 | Houston fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% HOU | HOU: End of half |
| 6 | Q3 11:26 | Houston converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedHouston converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +5% HOU | HOU: End of half |
| 7 | Q3 9:39 | Houston converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedHouston converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +4% HOU | HOU: End of half |
| 8 | Q4 14:53 | Return touchdown by HoustonSpecial teams | +4% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Houston 100% · Rice 0%
- Final margin
- Houston by 26
- Luck in points
- 7.3 for Houston
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Houston by 18.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Houston 85% · Rice 15% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Houston · 
Rice
More from Week 2 2025
- Tulane at South Alabama TULN 33–31 · replay 15% for the winner
- Army at Kansas State ARMY 24–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Tulsa at New Mexico State NMSU 21–14 · replay 24% for the winner
- Baylor at SMU BAY 48–45 · replay 27% for the winner
- Arizona State at Mississippi State MSST 24–20 · replay 47% for the winner
- Texas State at UTSA TXST 43–36 · replay 47% for the winner
- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
- South Florida at Florida USF 18–16 · replay 56% for the winner
- Memphis at Georgia State MEM 38–16 · replay 64% for the winner
- Kansas at Missouri MIZ 42–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- UAB at Navy NAVY 38–24 · replay 79% for the winner