Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
UT Martin at UTEP, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
UTEP beat UT Martin 42–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UTEP wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff UTEP was a 69% favorite.
Final
 UT Martin Skyhawks | 17 |
|---|---|
 UTEP Miners | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 UTEP about even · −1 UT Martin
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UT Martin wins 0, UTEP wins 10.
- 1 UTM 30 UTEP 41
- 2 UTM 7 UTEP 27
- 3 UTM 20 UTEP 45
- 4 UTM 24 UTEP 54
- 5 UTM 24 UTEP 58
- 6 UTM 10 UTEP 48
- 7 UTM 17 UTEP 60
- 8 UTM 20 UTEP 68
- 9 UTM 7 UTEP 61
- 10 UTM 7 UTEP 70
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UT Martin wins 1% of them, UTEP 99%. The line is what actually happened: UTEP by 25.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UT Martin by 17+ | 0.1% |
| UT Martin by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| UT Martin by 1–8 | 0.4% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| UTEP by 1–8 | 1.3% |
| UTEP by 9–16 | 2.7% |
| UTEP by 17+ | 95.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Hechter, 21 yds made · 93% expected
- C. Arreola, 52 yds blocked · 50% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: UT Martin 3 for 15 yards, UTEP 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:46 | False Start on UT Martin, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% UTEP +1.3 pts |
| Q1 9:32 | Illegal Formation on UT Martin, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTEP +0.6 pts |
| Q2 12:15 | Illegal Formation on UT Martin, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTEP +0.7 pts |
| Q3 9:08 | Face Mask on UTEP, 10 yards | 0% UTM +0.6 pts |
| Q4 8:01 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yards | 0% UTM +0.8 pts |
| Q4 0:26 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yards | 0% UTM +1.8 pts |
When it happened
UTEP’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:02 | UT Martin converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +4% UTM | UTM: End of half |
| 2 | Q1 12:24 | UT Martin fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% UTM | UTM: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 8:00 | UTEP was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +2% UTM | UTEP: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 3:33 | UT Martin was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +2% UTEP | UTM: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 2:56 | UT Martin was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +5% UTEP | UTM: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 2:12 | UTEP converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +3% UTEP | UTEP: Turnover |
| 7 | Q1 1:50 | UTEP fumbled and UT Martin recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% UTM | UTEP: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 8:02 | UTEP converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedUTEP’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +6% UTEP | UTEP: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UT Martin 0% · UTEP 100%
- Final margin
- UTEP by 25
- Luck in points
- 5.5 for UTEP
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UTEP by 19.5
- Replay with same day's form
- UT Martin 1% · UTEP 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
UT Martin · 
UTEP
More from Week 2 2025
- Tulsa at New Mexico State NMSU 21–14 · replay 24% for the winner
- Liberty at Jacksonville State JXST 34–24 · replay 60% for the winner
- Missouri State at Marshall MOST 21–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- Western Illinois at Northwestern NU 42–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- Delaware at Colorado COLO 31–7 · replay 88% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Hawai'i HAW 37–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Charleston Southern at Coastal Carolina CCU 13–0 · replay 93% for the winner
- Louisiana Tech at LSU LSU 23–7 · replay 95% for the winner
- Lindenwood at App State APP 20–13 · replay 97% for the winner
- Florida International at Penn State PSU 34–0 · replay 99% for the winner
- Kennesaw State at Indiana IU 56–9 · replay 99% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Toledo TOL 45–21 · replay 99% for the winner