Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Western Kentucky at Toledo, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Toledo beat Western Kentucky 45–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Toledo wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Toledo was a 69% favorite.
Final
 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | 21 |
|---|---|
 Toledo Rockets | 45 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Toledo about even · −1 Western Kentucky
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Kentucky wins 0, Toledo wins 10.
- 1 WKU 34 TOL 42
- 2 WKU 24 TOL 41
- 3 WKU 21 TOL 42
- 4 WKU 34 TOL 59
- 5 WKU 24 TOL 52
- 6 WKU 17 TOL 49
- 7 WKU 14 TOL 49
- 8 WKU 10 TOL 49
- 9 WKU 6 TOL 52
- 10 WKU 10 TOL 62
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Kentucky wins 1% of them, Toledo 99%. The line is what actually happened: Toledo by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Kentucky by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Western Kentucky by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Western Kentucky by 1–8 | 0.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Toledo by 1–8 | 2.5% |
| Toledo by 9–16 | 6.4% |
| Toledo by 17+ | 90.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Western Kentucky 4 for 45 yards, Toledo 8 for 70 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:43 | Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yards | +3% TOL +1.7 pts |
| Q1 7:01 | False Start on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TOL +1.1 pts |
| Q2 11:17 | Unnecessary Roughness on Toledo, 15 yards | +2% WKU +2.1 pts |
| Q2 9:13 | Pass Interference on Toledo, 15 yards | +2% WKU +2.1 pts |
| Q2 4:39 | False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WKU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:33 | Roughing the Passer on Western Kentucky, 15 yards | 0% TOL +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:25 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards | 0% WKU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:21 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% WKU +1.7 pts |
| Q3 9:03 | False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WKU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 0:35 | False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WKU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 10:05 | Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards | 0% TOL +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:20 | Delay of Game on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WKU +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Toledo’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:24 | Western Kentucky fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% WKU | WKU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 13:43 | Pass Interference on Western Kentucky, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% TOL | TOL: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 11:52 | Return touchdown by ToledoSpecial teams | +8% TOL | TOL: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:48 | Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +2% WKU | WKU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 4:54 | Toledo converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +2% TOL | TOL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 2:34 | Toledo converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +2% TOL | TOL: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 9:13 | Pass Interference on Toledo, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +2% WKU | WKU: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q2 8:22 | Western Kentucky was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +3% TOL | WKU: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Kentucky 0% · Toledo 100%
- Final margin
- Toledo by 24
- Luck in points
- 0.6 for Toledo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Toledo by 23.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Kentucky 1% · Toledo 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Western Kentucky · 
Toledo
More from Week 2 2025
- Bryant at Massachusetts BRY 27–26 · replay 10% for the winner
- Tulsa at New Mexico State NMSU 21–14 · replay 24% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Rutgers RUTG 45–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Liberty at Jacksonville State JXST 34–24 · replay 60% for the winner
- Missouri State at Marshall MOST 21–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- Long Island University at Eastern Michigan LIU 28–23 · replay 78% for the winner
- Delaware at Colorado COLO 31–7 · replay 88% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Cincinnati CIN 34–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Western Michigan UNT 33–30 · replay 89% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Hawai'i HAW 37–20 · replay 89% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Maryland MD 20–9 · replay 93% for the winner
- West Virginia at Ohio OHIO 17–10 · replay 94% for the winner