Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 46 of the 53 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Bryant at Massachusetts, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Bryant beat Massachusetts 27–26, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Massachusetts wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Massachusetts was an 86% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:37 left): Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 15 yards, worth 15 points of win probability to Bryant.
Final
 Bryant Bulldogs | 27 |
|---|---|
 Massachusetts Minutemen | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +90 Bryant very lucky · −90 Massachusetts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bryant wins 1, Massachusetts wins 9.
- 1 BRY 24 MASS 17
- 2 BRY 31 MASS 34
- 3 BRY 24 MASS 31
- 4 BRY 17 MASS 27
- 5 BRY 20 MASS 34
- 6 BRY 17 MASS 34
- 7 BRY 24 MASS 45
- 8 BRY 10 MASS 34
- 9 BRY 7 MASS 35
- 10 BRY 14 MASS 54
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bryant wins 10% of them, Massachusetts 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bryant by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bryant by 17+ | 0.8% |
| Bryant by 9–16 | 2.5% |
| Bryant by 1–8 | 6.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| Massachusetts by 1–8 | 12.9% |
| Massachusetts by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Massachusetts by 17+ | 57.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- B. Soli, 37 yds made · 77% expected
- B. Soli, 47 yds missed · 60% expected
- D. Morris, 38 yds missed · 76% expected
- D. Morris, 25 yds made · 90% expected
- D. Morris, 53 yds made · 48% expected
- B. Soli, 25 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: Bryant 6 for 86 yards, Massachusetts 11 for 115 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:33 | Holding on Bryant, 9 yards | 0% BRY 0.0 pts |
| Q1 4:29 | Holding on Bryant, 9 yards | +2% MASS +1.5 pts |
| Q1 0:53 | Illegal Formation on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.3 pts |
| Q1 0:46 | Illegal Formation on Massachusetts, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% BRY +2.1 pts |
| Q2 10:20 | Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 15 yards | +1% BRY +2.0 pts |
| Q2 0:48 | Ineligible Downfield on Bryant, 5 yards | 0% MASS +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:48 | Targeting on Massachusetts, 9 yards, wiping out the play | 0% BRY +7.9 pts |
| Q3 14:24 | Personal Foul on Bryant, 50 yards | +3% MASS +3.8 pts |
| Q3 10:16 | Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 13 yards | 0% BRY 0.0 pts |
| Q3 10:13 | Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 13 yards | +1% BRY +1.2 pts |
| Q3 5:20 | Holding on Massachusetts, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% BRY +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:20 | Holding on Massachusetts, 10 yards | +1% BRY +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:35 | Face Mask on Bryant, 8 yards | +2% MASS +1.2 pts |
| Q4 5:36 | Holding on Massachusetts, 10 yards | +6% BRY +1.3 pts |
| Q4 2:37 | Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 15 yards | +15% BRY +1.9 pts |
| Q4 1:34 | False Start on Bryant, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MASS +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:08 | Holding on Massachusetts, 10 yards | 0% BRY +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Massachusetts’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 98%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:11 | Return touchdown by MassachusettsSpecial teams | +5% MASS | MASS: End of half |
| 2 | Q4 10:09 | Bryant was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +5% MASS | BRY: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 6:14 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +14% MASS | MASS: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 5:36 | Holding on Massachusetts, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% BRY | BRY: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 4:11 | D. Morris made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 48% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before | +15% MASS | MASS: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 2:37 | Pass Interference on Massachusetts, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +15% BRY | BRY: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 2:00 | Massachusetts was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +5% BRY | MASS: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 1:24 | Bryant converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% BRY | BRY: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bryant 91% · Massachusetts 9%
- Final margin
- Bryant by 1
- Luck in points
- 8.2 for Massachusetts
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bryant by 9.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Bryant 10% · Massachusetts 90% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 46 of the 53 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Bryant · 
Massachusetts
More from Week 2 2025
- Miami (OH) at Rutgers RUTG 45–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Long Island University at Eastern Michigan LIU 28–23 · replay 78% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Cincinnati CIN 34–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Western Michigan UNT 33–30 · replay 89% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Maryland MD 20–9 · replay 93% for the winner
- West Virginia at Ohio OHIO 17–10 · replay 94% for the winner
- Western Kentucky at Toledo TOL 45–21 · replay 99% for the winner
- Akron at Nebraska NEB 68–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- North Carolina A&T at UCF UCF 68–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Kent State at Texas Tech TTU 62–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Central Michigan at Pittsburgh PITT 45–17 · replay 100% for the winner
- Saint Francis at Buffalo BUF 45–6 · replay 100% for the winner