Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
North Carolina A&T at UCF, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
UCF beat North Carolina A&T 68–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UCF wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff UCF was a 99% favorite.
Final
 North Carolina A&T Aggies | 7 |
|---|---|
 UCF Knights | 68 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 UCF about even · 0 North Carolina A&T
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. North Carolina A&T wins 0, UCF wins 10.
- 1 NCAT 28 UCF 38
- 2 NCAT 10 UCF 28
- 3 NCAT 3 UCF 27
- 4 NCAT 23 UCF 49
- 5 NCAT 12 UCF 42
- 6 NCAT 0 UCF 34
- 7 NCAT 17 UCF 55
- 8 NCAT 0 UCF 42
- 9 NCAT 9 UCF 56
- 10 NCAT 0 UCF 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
North Carolina A&T wins 0% of them, UCF 100%. The line is what actually happened: UCF by 61.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| North Carolina A&T by 17+ | 0.0% |
| North Carolina A&T by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| North Carolina A&T by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| UCF by 1–8 | 1.4% |
| UCF by 9–16 | 3.6% |
| UCF by 17+ | 94.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Ruelas, 34 yds made · 82% expected
- N. Ruelas, 36 yds made · 79% expected
- A. Brown, 43 yds missed · 65% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: North Carolina A&T 5 for 35 yards, UCF 5 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:41 | False Start on North Carolina A&T, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NCAT +0.8 pts |
| Q2 8:06 | Illegal Snap on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NCAT +0.5 pts |
| Q2 4:45 | Holding on UCF, 10 yards | 0% NCAT +1.3 pts |
| Q2 4:10 | False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NCAT +0.4 pts |
| Q2 0:04 | Penalty on North Carolina A&T, 15 yards | 0% UCF +1.6 pts |
| Q3 14:18 | Personal Foul on UCF, 15 yards | 0% NCAT +1.6 pts |
| Q3 12:09 | False Start on North Carolina A&T, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UCF +0.7 pts |
| Q3 10:33 | Personal Foul on UCF, 15 yards | 0% NCAT +4.1 pts |
| Q3 9:27 | False Start on North Carolina A&T, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UCF +0.7 pts |
| Q3 8:12 | Delay of Game on North Carolina A&T, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UCF +0.9 pts |
When it happened
UCF’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:41 | False Start on North Carolina A&T, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% NCAT | UCF: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 13:27 | North Carolina A&T was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +0% UCF | NCAT: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 11:00 | UCF was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +0% NCAT | UCF: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 10:43 | UCF converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +0% UCF | UCF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 7:52 | UCF converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% UCF | UCF: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 4:13 | North Carolina A&T fumbled and UCF recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% UCF | NCAT: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 3:23 | UCF was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +0% NCAT | UCF: Punt |
| 8 | Q1 2:06 | North Carolina A&T fumbled and UCF recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by UCFSpecial teams | +0% UCF | NCAT: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
North Carolina A&T 0% · UCF 100%
- Final margin
- UCF by 61
- Luck in points
- 9.1 for UCF
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UCF by 51.9
- Replay with same day's form
- North Carolina A&T 0% · UCF 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
North Carolina A&T · 
UCF
More from Week 2 2025
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- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
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- Delaware at Colorado COLO 31–7 · replay 88% for the winner
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