Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Stanford at BYU, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
BYU beat Stanford 27–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, BYU wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff BYU was a 91% favorite.
Final
 Stanford Cardinal | 3 |
|---|---|
 BYU Cougars | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 BYU about even · −3 Stanford
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Stanford wins 0, BYU wins 10.
- 1 STAN 6 BYU 10
- 2 STAN 7 BYU 16
- 3 STAN 14 BYU 27
- 4 STAN 0 BYU 16
- 5 STAN 6 BYU 24
- 6 STAN 10 BYU 31
- 7 STAN 0 BYU 24
- 8 STAN 10 BYU 37
- 9 STAN 0 BYU 31
- 10 STAN 0 BYU 37
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Stanford wins 3% of them, BYU 97%. The line is what actually happened: BYU by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Stanford by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Stanford by 9–16 | 0.7% |
| Stanford by 1–8 | 2.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| BYU by 1–8 | 11.6% |
| BYU by 9–16 | 15.7% |
| BYU by 17+ | 69.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- W. Ferrin, 36 yds made · 84% expected
- W. Ferrin, 30 yds made · 92% expected
- W. Ferrin, 21 yds made · 99% expected
- E. Kenney, 26 yds made · 92% expected
- W. Ferrin, 23 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Stanford 6 for 45 yards, BYU 4 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:32 | False Start on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BYU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 13:18 | False Start on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BYU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:30 | Holding on BYU, 10 yards | 0% STAN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:30 | Illegal Block on BYU, 10 yards | 0% STAN +1.3 pts |
| Q2 3:54 | Holding on BYU, 10 yards | 0% STAN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 14:38 | Holding on Stanford, 10 yards | 0% BYU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 14:10 | Personal Foul on Stanford, 15 yards | 0% BYU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 12:36 | Illegal Procedure on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BYU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:04 | False Start on BYU, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% STAN +0.3 pts |
| Q4 3:12 | Delay of Game on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BYU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
BYU’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:37 | Stanford was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +1% BYU | STAN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:27 | BYU converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +1% BYU | BYU: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 10:59 | BYU was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +1% STAN | BYU: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q1 10:15 | BYU converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +1% BYU | BYU: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q1 8:45 | BYU was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +1% STAN | BYU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q1 8:13 | BYU was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +2% STAN | BYU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 6:49 | Stanford was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +1% BYU | STAN: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 1:26 | Stanford fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% STAN | STAN: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Stanford 0% · BYU 100%
- Final margin
- BYU by 24
- Luck in points
- 3.6 for BYU
- Luck-adjusted margin
- BYU by 20.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Stanford 3% · BYU 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Stanford · 
BYU
More from Week 2 2025
- Boston College at Michigan State MSU 42–40 · replay 8% for the winner
- Army at Kansas State ARMY 24–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Baylor at SMU BAY 48–45 · replay 27% for the winner
- Arizona State at Mississippi State MSST 24–20 · replay 47% for the winner
- Illinois at Duke ILL 45–19 · replay 47% for the winner
- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
- UConn at Syracuse SYR 27–20 · replay 66% for the winner
- Kansas at Missouri MIZ 42–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- North Carolina at Charlotte UNC 20–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- James Madison at Louisville LOU 28–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Troy at Clemson CLEM 27–16 · replay 79% for the winner
- Virginia at NC State NCSU 35–31 · replay 84% for the winner