Week 2 2025 · September 6, 2025
Bowling Green at Cincinnati, Week 2 2025: who deserved to win?
Cincinnati beat Bowling Green 34–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Cincinnati wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Cincinnati was a 92% favorite.
Final
 Bowling Green Falcons | 20 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bearcats | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Cincinnati about even · −12 Bowling Green
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bowling Green wins 1, Cincinnati wins 9.
- 1 BGSU 24 CIN 17
- 2 BGSU 31 CIN 34
- 3 BGSU 7 CIN 13
- 4 BGSU 19 CIN 28
- 5 BGSU 21 CIN 34
- 6 BGSU 21 CIN 37
- 7 BGSU 14 CIN 34
- 8 BGSU 3 CIN 27
- 9 BGSU 6 CIN 34
- 10 BGSU 17 CIN 54
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bowling Green wins 12% of them, Cincinnati 88%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cincinnati by 14.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bowling Green by 17+ | 1.2% |
| Bowling Green by 9–16 | 2.7% |
| Bowling Green by 1–8 | 7.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.3% |
| Cincinnati by 1–8 | 13.7% |
| Cincinnati by 9–16 | 20.8% |
| Cincinnati by 17+ | 53.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Kleather, 54 yds missed · 47% expected
- J. Kleather, 25 yds made · 91% expected
- S. Rusnak, 40 yds made · 73% expected
- S. Rusnak, 23 yds made · 93% expected
- J. Kleather, 30 yds made · 86% expected
Penalties: Bowling Green 4 for 28 yards, Cincinnati 5 for 52 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Personal Foul on Cincinnati, 15 yards | +1% BGSU +1.5 pts |
| Q1 3:55 | False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BGSU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 1:12 | Pass Interference on Bowling Green, 13 yards | +1% CIN +2.6 pts |
| Q2 9:19 | Offside on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:48 | Illegal Substitution on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.8 pts |
| Q3 12:51 | Offside on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BGSU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 12:51 | False Start on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIN +0.8 pts |
| Q4 12:40 | Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 12 yards | 0% BGSU +3.7 pts |
| Q4 6:12 | Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 15 yards | 0% BGSU +1.8 pts |
When it happened
Cincinnati’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Bowling Green was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedPersonal Foul on Cincinnati, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% BGSU | BGSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 12:43 | Cincinnati was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +1% BGSU | CIN: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 11:09 | Bowling Green was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +1% CIN | BGSU: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q1 8:23 | J. Kleather missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 47% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before | +1% CIN | BGSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 3:55 | Cincinnati was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedFalse Start on Cincinnati, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% BGSU | CIN: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 1:12 | Pass Interference on Bowling Green, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +1% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 0:24 | Cincinnati converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% CIN | CIN: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 6:12 | S. Rusnak made a 23-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for himPass Interference on Cincinnati, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +0% BGSU | CIN: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bowling Green 4% · Cincinnati 96%
- Final margin
- Cincinnati by 14
- Luck in points
- 3.2 for Cincinnati
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cincinnati by 10.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Bowling Green 12% · Cincinnati 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2025 games · 
Bowling Green · 
Cincinnati
More from Week 2 2025
- Bryant at Massachusetts BRY 27–26 · replay 10% for the winner
- Army at Kansas State ARMY 24–21 · replay 19% for the winner
- Baylor at SMU BAY 48–45 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami (OH) at Rutgers RUTG 45–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Arizona State at Mississippi State MSST 24–20 · replay 47% for the winner
- Iowa at Iowa State ISU 16–13 · replay 52% for the winner
- Kansas at Missouri MIZ 42–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- Long Island University at Eastern Michigan LIU 28–23 · replay 78% for the winner
- Houston at Rice HOU 35–9 · replay 85% for the winner
- Delaware at Colorado COLO 31–7 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Western Michigan UNT 33–30 · replay 89% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Maryland MD 20–9 · replay 93% for the winner