Big 12 · 2026 season, in progress
Cincinnati Bearcats: luck and expected wins
Cincinnati is 4–0 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 3.2 wins. Luck added 0.8: the 13th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 2–0.
2026, game by game
How often Cincinnati wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Boston College | W 34–15 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 2 | vs Western Carolina | W 62–10 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 3 | vs Miami (OH) | W 35–31 | 48% | +52 |
| Week 4 | vs Kansas State | W 31–26 | 83% | +17 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Cincinnati win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at Arizona |  Arizona by 5.4 | 37% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | at West Virginia |  Cincinnati by 3.1 | 58% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs Texas Tech |  Texas Tech by 5.4 | 37% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Utah |  Utah by 14.1 | 20% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at Houston |  Houston by 5.8 | 36% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at Iowa State |  Iowa State by 7.7 | 32% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Colorado | Cincinnati by 11.9 | 76% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at BYU |  BYU by 10.9 | 26% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Cincinnati’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-snap flags | +0.21 | +8.4 |
| Kicks | +0.13 | +9.0 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.07 | −4.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.07 | +1.8 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Cincinnati takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 5 | @ Kansas | W 37–34 | 30% | +70 |
| 2026 Week 3 | vs Miami (OH) | W 35–31 | 48% | +52 |
| 2025 Week 7 | vs UCF | W 20–11 | 76% | +24 |
| 2025 Week 8 | @ Oklahoma State | W 49–17 | 77% | +23 |
| 2026 Week 4 | vs Kansas State | W 31–26 | 83% | +17 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Cincinnati would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 1 | vs Nebraska | L 17–20 | 81% | −81 |
| 2025 Week 13 | vs BYU | L 14–26 | 64% | −64 |
| 2025 Week 14 | @ TCU | L 23–45 | 54% | −54 |
| 2025 Week 12 | vs Arizona | L 24–30 | 30% | −30 |
| 2025 Week 10 | @ Utah | L 14–45 | 27% | −27 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7–5 | 8.1 | −1.1 | 2–2 | 0–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Nebraska | L 17–20 | 81% | −81 |
| Week 2 | vs Bowling Green | W 34–20 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 3 | vs Northwestern State | W 70–0 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 5 | @ Kansas | W 37–34 | 30% | +70 |
| Week 6 | vs Iowa State | W 38–30 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 7 | vs UCF | W 20–11 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 8 | @ Oklahoma State | W 49–17 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 9 | vs Baylor | W 41–20 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 10 | @ Utah | L 14–45 | 27% | −27 |
| Week 12 | vs Arizona | L 24–30 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 13 | vs BYU | L 14–26 | 64% | −64 |
| Week 14 | @ TCU | L 23–45 | 54% | −54 |
| AutoZone Liberty Bowl | vs Navy | L 13–35 | 9% | −9 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Big 12 teams by luck
- Big 12: Arizona,
Arizona State, 
Baylor, BYU, 
Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, 
Kansas, 
Kansas State, 
Oklahoma State, 
TCU, Texas Tech, 
UCF, Utah, 
West Virginia
How many wins does Cincinnati have in 2026?
4–0 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 3.2 wins.
Was Cincinnati lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Lucky so far: +0.8 wins of luck, the 13th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Cincinnati’s luckiest season?
2026: 4–0 from play worth 3.2 wins, +0.8 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 7–5 from play worth 8.1 (−1.1).