Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Kansas State at Cincinnati, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Cincinnati beat Kansas State 31–26, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Cincinnati wins 8 of 10.
An off day for Kansas State: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Cincinnati it would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers
Before kickoff Kansas State was a 65% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:18 left): Holding on Kansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to Cincinnati.
Final
 Kansas State Wildcats | 26 |
|---|---|
 Cincinnati Bearcats | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Cincinnati about even · −17 Kansas State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Kansas State wins 2, Cincinnati wins 8.
- 1 KSU 24 CIN 10
- 2 KSU 24 CIN 20
- 3 KSU 31 CIN 35
- 4 KSU 6 CIN 13
- 5 KSU 7 CIN 17
- 6 KSU 17 CIN 31
- 7 KSU 21 CIN 38
- 8 KSU 21 CIN 42
- 9 KSU 17 CIN 44
- 10 KSU 10 CIN 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Kansas State
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Cincinnati it would win 59% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
42 points apart for Kansas State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.15 | +0.13 | better by 0.02 |
| Kansas State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.33 | +0.03 | worse by 0.30 |
| Cincinnati offenseEPA per play gained | +0.33 | +0.15 | better by 0.18 |
| Cincinnati defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.08 | worse by 0.07 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Kansas State wins 17% of them, Cincinnati 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cincinnati by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Kansas State by 17+ | 2.4% |
| Kansas State by 9–16 | 4.9% |
| Kansas State by 1–8 | 9.7% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Cincinnati by 1–8 | 20.5% |
| Cincinnati by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Cincinnati by 17+ | 41.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Rodriguez, 22 yds made · 95% expected
- S. Rusnak, 45 yds made · 63% expected
- L. Rodriguez, 36 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: Kansas State 7 for 50 yards, Cincinnati 7 for 72 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:26 | False Start on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CIN +1.0 pts |
| Q1 2:35 | Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% KSU +4.1 pts |
| Q1 2:11 | False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KSU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 14:22 | Pass Interference on Kansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% CIN +3.7 pts |
| Q2 13:10 | Illegal Block on Cincinnati, 12 yards | +2% KSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 12:33 | False Start on Cincinnati, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% KSU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:04 | Holding on Cincinnati, 10 yards | +2% KSU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 4:56 | Offside on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.3 pts |
| Q3 1:17 | Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 15 yards | +6% KSU +1.9 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Holding on Kansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +7% CIN +1.6 pts |
| Q4 6:21 | Offside on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +14% CIN +3.0 pts |
| Q4 3:25 | Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 15 yards | 0% KSU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 1:45 | Delay of Game on Kansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:18 | Holding on Kansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +19% CIN +2.3 pts |
When it happened
Cincinnati’s chance of winning
As low as 15% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:35 | Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% KSU | KSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 14:22 | Pass Interference on Kansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% CIN | CIN: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 1:17 | Pass Interference on Cincinnati, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +6% KSU | KSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 15:00 | Holding on Kansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +7% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 9:35 | Kansas State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +6% CIN | KSU: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 6:55 | Cincinnati was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +8% KSU | CIN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 6:21 | Offside on Kansas State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +14% CIN | CIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:18 | Holding on Kansas State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +19% CIN | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Kansas State 39% · Cincinnati 61%
- Final margin
- Cincinnati by 5
- Luck in points
- 3.0 for Cincinnati
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Cincinnati by 2.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Kansas State 17% · Cincinnati 83% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Kansas State · 
Cincinnati
More from Week 4 2026
- Arizona at Washington State ARIZ 34–24 · replay 73% for the winner
- TCU at UCF UCF 21–13 · replay 77% for the winner
- Colorado at Baylor BAY 23–13 · replay 81% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at West Virginia OKST 41–24 · replay 91% for the winner
- Utah at Iowa State UTAH 31–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Houston at Georgia Southern HOU 42–28 · replay 98% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Texas Tech TTU 49–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner
- Minnesota at Washington MINN 27–24 · replay 40% for the winner