luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

Minnesota at Washington, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Minnesota beat Washington 27–24, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Minnesota wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Minnesota.

Before kickoff Washington was a 79% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 11:03 left): Washington converted 4th & 5, worth 8 points of win probability to Washington.

Final

Minnesota Golden Gophers 27
Washington Huskies 24

September 26, 2026 · Husky Stadium · Closing line: Washington −12.5

Luck index +60 Minnesota lucky · −60 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Minnesota wins 4, Washington wins 6.

  1. 1 MINN 20 WASH 0
  2. 2 MINN 27 WASH 14
  3. 3 MINN 26 WASH 19
  4. 4 MINN 20 WASH 17
  5. 5 MINN 14 WASH 17
  6. 6 MINN 14 WASH 20
  7. 7 MINN 3 WASH 13
  8. 8 MINN 24 WASH 37
  9. 9 MINN 6 WASH 24
  10. 10 MINN 13 WASH 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Minnesota wins 40% of them, Washington 60%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Minnesota by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Minnesota by 17+9.1%
Minnesota by 9–1611.8%
Minnesota by 1–816.4%
Level after regulation3.8%
Washington by 1–821.3%
Washington by 9–1618.2%
Washington by 17+19.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to Washington: the final margin was Minnesota by 3, without the luck Minnesota by 4.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • T. Robles, 33 yds made · 83% expected
  • L. Drzewiecki, 31 yds made · 87% expected
  • L. Drzewiecki, 51 yds made · 54% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Minnesota 8 for 70 yards, Washington 5 for 47 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:20 Roughing the Passer on Washington, 15 yards +3% MINN +1.6 pts
Q2 14:11 Personal Foul on Minnesota, 15 yards +5% WASH +2.4 pts
Q2 7:48 Offside on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MINN +0.8 pts
Q2 1:35 False Start on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WASH +0.6 pts
Q3 13:46 Intentional Grounding on Washington, 7 yards +1% MINN +0.4 pts
Q3 13:46 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MINN +0.3 pts
Q3 11:58 False Start on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WASH +1.0 pts
Q3 7:09 False Start on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WASH +0.9 pts
Q3 3:38 False Start on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WASH +0.3 pts
Q4 10:12 Face Mask on Washington, 15 yards +6% MINN +1.6 pts
Q4 3:45 Kick Catch Interference on Minnesota, 15 yards +1% WASH +0.9 pts
Q4 2:41 Roughing the Passer on Minnesota, 15 yards +2% WASH +0.9 pts
Q4 0:11 Delay of Game on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WASH +0.4 pts

When it happened

Washington’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 81%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Washington was ahead in it, below while Minnesota was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:11 Personal Foul on Minnesota, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% WASH WASH: Touchdown
2 Q3 13:46 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedIntentional Grounding on Washington, 7 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Washington, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% MINN WASH: Punt
3 Q3 3:42 Minnesota converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +6% MINN MINN: Field goal
4 Q4 11:48 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +6% MINN WASH: Touchdown
5 Q4 11:03 Washington converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% WASH WASH: Punt
6 Q4 10:12 Face Mask on Washington, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% MINN MINN: Field goal
7 Q4 8:12 Minnesota was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +4% WASH MINN: Field goal
8 Q4 7:28 L. Drzewiecki made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +7% MINN MINN: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Minnesota 79% · Washington 21%

Final margin
Minnesota by 3
Luck in points
1.8 for Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Minnesota by 4.8
Replay with same day's form
Minnesota 40% · Washington 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Minnesota · Washington

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