luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

UCLA at Maryland, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

UCLA beat Maryland 54–3, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff UCLA was a 56% favorite.

Final

UCLA Bruins 54
Maryland Terrapins 3

September 26, 2026 · SECU Stadium · Closing line: UCLA −2.5

Luck index +28 UCLA lucky · −28 Maryland

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. UCLA wins 7, Maryland wins 3.

  1. 1 UCLA 34 MD 0
  2. 2 UCLA 26 MD 2
  3. 3 UCLA 24 MD 5
  4. 4 UCLA 36 MD 21
  5. 5 UCLA 31 MD 21
  6. 6 UCLA 24 MD 18
  7. 7 UCLA 13 MD 10
  8. 8 UCLA 13 MD 15
  9. 9 UCLA 10 MD 16
  10. 10 UCLA 3 MD 18

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

UCLA wins 72% of them, Maryland 28%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UCLA by 51.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
UCLA by 17+29.8%
UCLA by 9–1620.6%
UCLA by 1–820.1%
Level after regulation2.9%
Maryland by 1–814.4%
Maryland by 9–168.6%
Maryland by 17+3.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.0 points to Maryland: the final margin was UCLA by 51, without the luck UCLA by 54. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • S. O'Haire, 37 yds made · 79% expected
  • M. Bhaghani, 40 yds made · 75% expected
  • M. Bhaghani, 37 yds made · 80% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: UCLA 8 for 60 yards, Maryland 6 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:01 Offside on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UCLA +0.8 pts
Q2 13:31 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UCLA, 15 yards 0% MD +1.6 pts
Q2 10:57 Face Mask on Maryland, 15 yards +3% UCLA +1.6 pts
Q2 6:48 Face Mask on Maryland, 15 yards +2% UCLA +1.6 pts
Q2 0:38 Pass Interference on Maryland, 15 yards 0% UCLA +0.2 pts
Q2 0:34 Offside on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UCLA +0.6 pts
Q2 0:34 False Start on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MD +0.8 pts
Q2 0:22 Delay of Game on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UCLA 0.0 pts
Q3 8:09 False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UCLA +0.5 pts
Q3 8:04 Offside on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MD +0.3 pts
Q3 3:36 Delay of Game on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MD +0.4 pts
Q4 8:56 Delay of Game on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MD 0.0 pts
Q4 7:01 Illegal Substitution on UCLA, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MD +0.3 pts
Q4 1:54 Face Mask on UCLA, 15 yards 0% MD +1.6 pts

When it happened

Maryland’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 51%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Maryland was ahead in it, below while UCLA was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:00 Maryland was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +3% UCLA MD: Punt
2 Q1 12:17 UCLA converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +3% UCLA UCLA: Turnover
3 Q1 9:18 Maryland was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +3% UCLA MD: Punt
4 Q1 5:05 Maryland was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +2% UCLA MD: Punt
5 Q1 2:49 UCLA was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +3% MD UCLA: Turnover on downs
6 Q1 2:35 UCLA was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +6% MD UCLA: Touchdown
7 Q2 11:37 Maryland was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedMaryland fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +2% MD MD: Punt
8 Q2 10:57 Face Mask on Maryland, 15 yardsJudgment calls +3% UCLA UCLA: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

UCLA 100% · Maryland 0%

Final margin
UCLA by 51
Luck in points
3.0 for Maryland
Luck-adjusted margin
UCLA by 54.0
Replay with same day's form
UCLA 72% · Maryland 28% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · UCLA · Maryland

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