luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026

Oregon at USC, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Oregon beat USC 41–27, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Oregon wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 17 points of win probability to Oregon.

Before kickoff Oregon was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:47 left): Roughing the Passer on USC, 15 yards, worth 13 points of win probability to Oregon.

Final

Oregon Ducks 41
USC Trojans 27

September 26, 2026 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · Closing line: Oregon −3.5

Luck index +47 Oregon lucky · −47 USC

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Oregon wins 5, USC wins 5.

  1. 1 ORE 28 USC 3
  2. 2 ORE 38 USC 23
  3. 3 ORE 28 USC 17
  4. 4 ORE 21 USC 14
  5. 5 ORE 17 USC 14
  6. 6 ORE 24 USC 27
  7. 7 ORE 17 USC 21
  8. 8 ORE 14 USC 23
  9. 9 ORE 10 USC 23
  10. 10 ORE 28 USC 49

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Oregon wins 53% of them, USC 47%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oregon by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Oregon by 17+14.6%
Oregon by 9–1617.1%
Oregon by 1–819.6%
Level after regulation2.8%
USC by 1–824.9%
USC by 9–1611.6%
USC by 17+9.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.6 points to Oregon: the final margin was Oregon by 14, without the luck Oregon by 5.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Chittenden, 33 yds missed · 83% expected
  • G. Hurych, 30 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Chittenden, 38 yds made · 75% expected
  • G. Hurych, 19 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Chittenden, 29 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Oregon 5 for 50 yards, USC 5 for 39 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:01 Holding on Oregon, 10 yards +3% USC +1.7 pts
Q1 5:34 Roughing the Passer on USC, 8 yards +2% ORE +1.2 pts
Q1 4:47 Holding on Oregon, 10 yards +3% USC +1.5 pts
Q2 13:30 Illegal Use of Hands on Oregon, 15 yards +4% USC +1.6 pts
Q2 10:06 Targeting on USC, 6 yards +3% ORE +1.1 pts
Q2 8:27 False Start on USC, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ORE +0.7 pts
Q2 1:08 Holding on Oregon, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% USC +3.5 pts
Q2 0:32 Face Mask on USC, 5 yards +3% ORE +1.0 pts
Q4 10:53 False Start on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% USC +0.7 pts
Q4 10:47 Roughing the Passer on USC, 15 yards +13% ORE +2.8 pts

When it happened

USC’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 53%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while USC was ahead in it, below while Oregon was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:58 USC converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% USC USC: Missed field goal
2 Q1 9:05 C. Chittenden missed a 33-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him +8% ORE USC: Punt
3 Q2 1:08 Holding on Oregon, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% USC USC: End of half
4 Q2 1:02 Oregon converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% ORE ORE: Field goal
5 Q3 7:03 Oregon converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% ORE ORE: Touchdown
6 Q4 10:47 Roughing the Passer on USC, 15 yardsJudgment calls +13% ORE ORE: Touchdown
7 Q4 8:35 Oregon converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +10% ORE ORE: Touchdown
8 Q4 7:15 USC was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% ORE USC: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Oregon 81% · USC 19%

Final margin
Oregon by 14
Luck in points
8.6 for Oregon
Luck-adjusted margin
Oregon by 5.4
Replay with same day's form
Oregon 53% · USC 47% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Oregon · USC

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