luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2026 · September 25, 2026

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 44 of the 52 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Northwestern at Indiana, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?

Indiana beat Northwestern 29–23, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Indiana wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff Indiana was a 91% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:10 left): Northwestern converted 3rd & 7, worth 9 points of win probability to Northwestern.

Final

Northwestern Wildcats 23
Indiana Hoosiers 29

September 25, 2026 · Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) · Closing line: Indiana −20.5

Luck index +9 Indiana about even · −9 Northwestern

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Northwestern wins 1, Indiana wins 9.

  1. 1 NU 21 IU 14
  2. 2 NU 17 IU 21
  3. 3 NU 24 IU 31
  4. 4 NU 6 IU 17
  5. 5 NU 7 IU 21
  6. 6 NU 14 IU 31
  7. 7 NU 14 IU 35
  8. 8 NU 3 IU 28
  9. 9 NU 14 IU 44
  10. 10 NU 7 IU 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Northwestern wins 9% of them, Indiana 91%. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Northwestern by 17+0.6%
Northwestern by 9–162.3%
Northwestern by 1–86.4%
Level after regulation0.4%
Indiana by 1–816.2%
Indiana by 9–1619.9%
Indiana by 17+54.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.6 points to Northwestern: the final margin was Indiana by 6, without the luck Indiana by 14.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Radicic, 43 yds made · 70% expected
  • N. Radicic, 22 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Kleather, 42 yds made · 70% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Northwestern 9 for 78 yards, Indiana 8 for 60 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:52 Illegal Snap on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NU +0.8 pts
Q1 14:52 Illegal Snap on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NU +0.2 pts
Q1 4:24 False Start on Northwestern, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% IU +0.6 pts
Q1 4:17 False Start on Northwestern, 2 yards · pre-snap 0% IU +0.4 pts
Q1 2:46 Holding on Indiana, 10 yards +1% NU +1.1 pts
Q2 11:41 Personal Foul on Indiana, 15 yards +2% NU +1.6 pts
Q2 7:49 Pass Interference on Northwestern, 15 yards +1% IU +1.1 pts
Q2 1:16 Intentional Grounding on Northwestern, 21 yards +1% IU +1.3 pts
Q3 11:29 False Start on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IU +0.3 pts
Q3 9:27 Face Mask on Indiana, 15 yards +1% NU +1.6 pts
Q3 6:31 Pass Interference on Northwestern, 6 yards 0% IU +0.3 pts
Q4 14:54 Pass Interference on Indiana, 1 yard, wiping out the play +3% IU +7.9 pts
Q4 14:54 False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% IU +0.5 pts
Q4 13:45 Face Mask on Northwestern, 15 yards +2% IU +3.3 pts
Q4 6:19 Holding on Indiana, 4 yards +3% NU +1.0 pts
Q4 3:01 Pass Interference on Northwestern, 0 yards +1% IU +0.7 pts
Q4 1:56 Holding on Northwestern, 10 yards 0% NU +0.6 pts

When it happened

Indiana’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Indiana was ahead in it, below while Northwestern was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:57 Indiana converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +2% IU IU: Field goal
2 Q2 11:41 Northwestern fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Personal Foul on Indiana, 15 yardsJudgment calls +3% NU NU: Punt
3 Q4 14:54 Pass Interference on Indiana, 1 yard, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on Indiana, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +9% IU NU: Touchdown
4 Q4 12:56 Indiana converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +2% IU IU: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:35 Northwestern fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +2% NU NU: Touchdown
6 Q4 6:19 Holding on Indiana, 4 yardsJudgment calls +3% NU NU: Touchdown
7 Q4 5:10 Northwestern converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% NU NU: Field goal
8 Q4 1:10 Northwestern converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +3% NU NU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Northwestern 1% · Indiana 99%

Final margin
Indiana by 6
Luck in points
8.6 for Northwestern
Luck-adjusted margin
Indiana by 14.6
Replay with same day's form
Northwestern 9% · Indiana 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 44 of the 52 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · Northwestern · Indiana

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