Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Illinois at Ohio State, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Ohio State beat Illinois 42–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Ohio State wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Ohio State was a 95% favorite.
Final
 Illinois Fighting Illini | 19 |
|---|---|
 Ohio State Buckeyes | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +3 Ohio State about even · −3 Illinois
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Illinois wins 0, Ohio State wins 10.
- 1 ILL 17 OSU 20
- 2 ILL 27 OSU 35
- 3 ILL 27 OSU 41
- 4 ILL 17 OSU 34
- 5 ILL 7 OSU 27
- 6 ILL 28 OSU 49
- 7 ILL 10 OSU 35
- 8 ILL 0 OSU 29
- 9 ILL 17 OSU 52
- 10 ILL 16 OSU 59
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Illinois wins 3% of them, Ohio State 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ohio State by 23.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Illinois by 17+ | 0.2% |
| Illinois by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Illinois by 1–8 | 1.8% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Ohio State by 1–8 | 7.3% |
| Ohio State by 9–16 | 13.1% |
| Ohio State by 17+ | 76.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Moczulski, 43 yds made · 68% expected
- E. Moczulski, 44 yds made · 67% expected
Penalties: Illinois 7 for 58 yards, Ohio State 6 for 68 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Offside on Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% OSU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL +0.7 pts |
| Q1 9:30 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Illinois, 5 yards | +1% OSU +2.1 pts |
| Q1 9:30 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Illinois, 5 yards | 0% OSU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 3:39 | Holding on Illinois, 10 yards | 0% OSU +1.9 pts |
| Q2 7:54 | False Start on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL +1.0 pts |
| Q2 1:32 | Holding on Ohio State, 10 yards | 0% ILL +0.6 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Pass Interference on Ohio State, 15 yards | 0% ILL +1.5 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Holding on Illinois, 10 yards | 0% OSU +2.8 pts |
| Q3 9:35 | False Start on Ohio State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:59 | Holding on Illinois, 8 yards, wiping out the play | 0% OSU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 6:06 | Pass Interference on Ohio State, 28 yards | 0% ILL +3.4 pts |
| Q4 6:06 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Illinois, 15 yards | 0% OSU +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Ohio State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:30 | Illinois converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedIllinois was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedIllinois converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Illinois, 5 yardsJudgment callsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Illinois, 5 yardsJudgment calls | +1% ILL | ILL: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 15:00 | Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +1% ILL | OSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 14:44 | Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +0% OSU | ILL: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 12:43 | Ohio State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedOhio State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expectedOhio State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 83% expected | +1% OSU | OSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 7:54 | Ohio State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 62% expectedOhio State converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 41% expectedOhio State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedFalse Start on Ohio State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% OSU | OSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 15:00 | Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +1% OSU | ILL: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 14:09 | Illinois was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expectedOhio State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 83% expected | +1% OSU | ILL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 6:02 | Illinois’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% OSU | ILL: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Illinois 0% · Ohio State 100%
- Final margin
- Ohio State by 23
- Luck in points
- none
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ohio State by 23.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Illinois 3% · Ohio State 97% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Illinois · 
Ohio State
More from Week 4 2026
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner
- Minnesota at Washington MINN 27–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- Nebraska at Michigan State NEB 31–13 · replay 48% for the winner
- Oregon at USC ORE 41–27 · replay 53% for the winner
- UCLA at Maryland UCLA 54–3 · replay 72% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Penn State WIS 24–20 · replay 79% for the winner
- Northwestern at Indiana IU 29–23 · replay 91% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Purdue ND 49–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Howard at Rutgers RUTG 58–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner