Week 4 2026 · September 26, 2026
Wisconsin at Penn State, Week 4 2026: who deserved to win?
Wisconsin beat Penn State 24–20, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10. Penn State had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Penn State.
An off day for Penn State: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Wisconsin it would win 70% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%. The numbers
Before kickoff Penn State was a 73% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:50 left): Return touchdown by Penn State, worth 16 points of win probability to Penn State.
Final
 Wisconsin Badgers | 24 |
|---|---|
 Penn State Nittany Lions | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Wisconsin about even · −21 Penn State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wisconsin wins 8, Penn State wins 2.
- 1 WIS 34 PSU 0
- 2 WIS 34 PSU 7
- 3 WIS 28 PSU 7
- 4 WIS 28 PSU 10
- 5 WIS 20 PSU 6
- 6 WIS 30 PSU 20
- 7 WIS 13 PSU 6
- 8 WIS 19 PSU 17
- 9 WIS 0 PSU 3
- 10 WIS 7 PSU 19
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Penn State
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Wisconsin it would win 70% of the time; with this day’s form, 21%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
49 points apart for Penn State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin offenseEPA per play gained | +0.01 | +0.03 | worse by 0.02 |
| Wisconsin defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.19 | +0.03 | better by 0.22 |
| Penn State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.19 | +0.07 | worse by 0.26 |
| Penn State defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.06 | better by 0.04 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wisconsin wins 79% of them, Penn State 21%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Wisconsin by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wisconsin by 17+ | 35.5% |
| Wisconsin by 9–16 | 21.1% |
| Wisconsin by 1–8 | 19.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.1% |
| Penn State by 1–8 | 11.5% |
| Penn State by 9–16 | 6.0% |
| Penn State by 17+ | 2.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Barker, 22 yds made · 97% expected
- G. Lahm, 34 yds made · 84% expected
- R. Barker, 37 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: Wisconsin 9 for 52 yards, Penn State 3 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:00 | Pass Interference on Wisconsin, 4 yards, wiping out the play | +2% PSU +1.2 pts |
| Q1 9:42 | Offside on Wisconsin, 2 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +3% PSU +2.3 pts |
| Q2 12:50 | False Start on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PSU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 10:29 | Offside on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WIS +0.3 pts |
| Q2 1:13 | Illegal Formation on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WIS +0.8 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | False Start on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PSU +1.5 pts |
| Q3 2:01 | False Start on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WIS +0.6 pts |
| Q4 7:02 | False Start on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PSU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 2:28 | Holding on Wisconsin, 6 yards | +3% PSU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 2:28 | False Start on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PSU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:58 | False Start on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% PSU +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:13 | Tripping on Wisconsin, 15 yards | +12% PSU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Penn State’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 98%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:07 | Penn State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedPenn State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedPenn State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +3% PSU | PSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 12:50 | False Start on Wisconsin, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by Penn StateSpecial teams | +16% PSU | PSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 10:53 | Penn State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedPenn State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expectedPenn State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedPenn State was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedG. Lahm made a 34-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him | +7% PSU | PSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 15:00 | Wisconsin was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedWisconsin converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedWisconsin was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedWisconsin fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% WIS | WIS: End of game |
| 5 | Q4 3:31 | Wisconsin converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +9% WIS | WIS: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 2:28 | Holding on Wisconsin, 6 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Wisconsin, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +5% PSU | PSU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 1:13 | Wisconsin converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedTripping on Wisconsin, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +15% WIS | WIS: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 0:20 | Penn State was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 17% expected | +5% WIS | PSU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wisconsin 79% · Penn State 21%
- Final margin
- Wisconsin by 4
- Luck in points
- 2.0 for Penn State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Wisconsin by 6.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Wisconsin 79% · Penn State 21% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2026 games · 
Wisconsin · 
Penn State
More from Week 4 2026
- Iowa at Michigan IOWA 20–19 · replay 13% for the winner
- Minnesota at Washington MINN 27–24 · replay 40% for the winner
- Nebraska at Michigan State NEB 31–13 · replay 48% for the winner
- Oregon at USC ORE 41–27 · replay 53% for the winner
- UCLA at Maryland UCLA 54–3 · replay 72% for the winner
- Northwestern at Indiana IU 29–23 · replay 91% for the winner
- Illinois at Ohio State OSU 42–19 · replay 97% for the winner
- Notre Dame at Purdue ND 49–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Howard at Rutgers RUTG 58–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Army at Temple ARMY 21–17 · replay 9% for the winner
- Navy at UAB UAB 24–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Wake Forest at Louisville WAKE 30–27 · replay 38% for the winner