Big Ten · 2026 season, in progress

Wisconsin Badgers: luck and expected wins

Wisconsin is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.9 wins. Luck added 0.1: the 68th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often Wisconsin wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Notre Dame	L 13–41	21%	−21
Week 2	vs Western Illinois	W 36–9	95%	+5
Week 3	vs Eastern Michigan	W 54–10	98%	+2
Week 4	@ Penn State	W 24–20	79%	+21

Wk 1 −21 vs ND

Wk 2 +5 vs WIU

Wk 3 +2 vs EMU

Wk 4 +21 @ PSU

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Wisconsin win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Michigan State	Wisconsin by 7.0	67%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at UCLA	UCLA by 8.2	31%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs USC	USC by 2.3	44%
Week 9 · Oct 31	at Iowa	Iowa by 12.2	23%
Week 10 · Nov 7	vs Rutgers	Wisconsin by 14.2	80%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Maryland	Wisconsin by 8.3	69%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Purdue	Wisconsin by 9.0	70%
Week 13 · Nov 27	vs Minnesota	Wisconsin by 6.7	65%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Wisconsin’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.23	+9.3
Kicks	+0.04	+3.9
Pre-snap flags	−0.13	−12.1

Luckiest wins

Wins Wisconsin takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 11	vs Washington	W 13–10	23%	+77
2025 Week 13	vs Illinois	W 27–10	67%	+33
2026 Week 4	@ Penn State	W 24–20	79%	+21
2026 Week 2	vs Western Illinois	W 36–9	95%	+5
2025 Week 1	vs Miami (OH)	W 17–0	97%	+3

Unluckiest losses

Losses Wisconsin would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 14	@ Minnesota	L 7–17	62%	−62
2026 Week 1	vs Notre Dame	L 13–41	21%	−21
2025 Week 4	vs Maryland	L 10–27	20%	−20
2025 Week 9	@ Oregon	L 7–21	13%	−13
2025 Week 6	@ Michigan	L 10–24	11%	−11

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	4–8	4.0	0.0	1–0	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Miami (OH)	W 17–0	97%	+3
Week 2	vs Middle Tennessee	W 42–10	99%	+1
Week 3	@ Alabama	L 14–38	4%	−4
Week 4	vs Maryland	L 10–27	20%	−20
Week 6	@ Michigan	L 10–24	11%	−11
Week 7	vs Iowa	L 0–37	0%	0
Week 8	vs Ohio State	L 0–34	1%	−1
Week 9	@ Oregon	L 7–21	13%	−13
Week 11	vs Washington	W 13–10	23%	+77
Week 12	@ Indiana	L 7–31	1%	−1
Week 13	vs Illinois	W 27–10	67%	+33
Week 14	@ Minnesota	L 7–17	62%	−62