Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Maryland at Wisconsin, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Maryland beat Wisconsin 27–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Maryland wins 8 of 10.
An off day for Wisconsin: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Maryland it would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%. The numbers
Before kickoff Wisconsin was a 75% favorite.
Final
 Maryland Terrapins | 27 |
|---|---|
 Wisconsin Badgers | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Maryland about even · −20 Wisconsin
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Maryland wins 8, Wisconsin wins 2.
- 1 MD 36 WIS 0
- 2 MD 29 WIS 3
- 3 MD 45 WIS 24
- 4 MD 31 WIS 13
- 5 MD 27 WIS 13
- 6 MD 10 WIS 0
- 7 MD 26 WIS 20
- 8 MD 6 WIS 3
- 9 MD 17 WIS 21
- 10 MD 19 WIS 32
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Wisconsin
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Maryland it would win 67% of the time; with this day’s form, 20%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
48 points apart for Wisconsin: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maryland offenseEPA per play gained | −0.17 | +0.05 | worse by 0.22 |
| Maryland defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.31 | +0.07 | better by 0.37 |
| Wisconsin offenseEPA per play gained | −0.31 | −0.01 | worse by 0.30 |
| Wisconsin defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.17 | −0.03 | better by 0.15 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Maryland wins 80% of them, Wisconsin 20%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Maryland by 17.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Maryland by 17+ | 37.9% |
| Maryland by 9–16 | 20.3% |
| Maryland by 1–8 | 18.3% |
| Level after regulation | 3.7% |
| Wisconsin by 1–8 | 10.9% |
| Wisconsin by 9–16 | 6.1% |
| Wisconsin by 17+ | 2.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Vakos, 38 yds blocked · 75% expected
- S. O'Haire, 49 yds made · 57% expected
- S. O'Haire, 26 yds made · 92% expected
- N. Vakos, 33 yds made · 82% expected
- N. Vakos, 51 yds missed · 51% expected
Penalties: Maryland 3 for 35 yards, Wisconsin 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:34 | Roughing the Passer on Maryland, 15 yards | +3% WIS +1.3 pts |
| Q2 7:24 | Illegal Snap on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MD +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:17 | Personal Foul on Maryland, 15 yards | +1% WIS +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:28 | Illegal Substitution on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WIS +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Wisconsin’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:23 | Wisconsin was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +3% MD | WIS: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 0:52 | Wisconsin fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% WIS | WIS: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 0:11 | Blocked punt by MarylandSpecial teams | +8% MD | MD: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q2 13:47 | Maryland converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +5% MD | MD: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 13:34 | Roughing the Passer on Maryland, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% WIS | WIS: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 4:48 | Maryland converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +4% MD | MD: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 3:38 | S. O'Haire made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before | +4% MD | MD: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 0:25 | Wisconsin was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +4% MD | WIS: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Maryland 89% · Wisconsin 11%
- Final margin
- Maryland by 17
- Luck in points
- 9.2 for Maryland
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Maryland by 7.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Maryland 80% · Wisconsin 20% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Maryland · 
Wisconsin
More from Week 4 2025
- Michigan at Nebraska MICH 30–27 · replay 39% for the winner
- Iowa at Rutgers IOWA 38–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- Washington at Washington State WASH 59–24 · replay 80% for the winner
- Michigan State at USC USC 45–31 · replay 89% for the winner
- Oregon State at Oregon ORE 41–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Purdue at Notre Dame ND 56–30 · replay 100% for the winner
- Illinois at Indiana IU 63–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner
- Syracuse at Clemson SYR 34–21 · replay 34% for the winner
- NC State at Duke DUKE 45–33 · replay 35% for the winner