Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Washington at Washington State, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Washington beat Washington State 59–24, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Washington was a 91% favorite.
Final
 Washington Huskies | 59 |
|---|---|
 Washington State Cougars | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +20 Washington about even · −20 Washington State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Washington wins 8, Washington State wins 2.
- 1 WASH 45 WSU 14
- 2 WASH 34 WSU 7
- 3 WASH 31 WSU 11
- 4 WASH 42 WSU 26
- 5 WASH 30 WSU 17
- 6 WASH 38 WSU 28
- 7 WASH 28 WSU 21
- 8 WASH 24 WSU 21
- 9 WASH 42 WSU 45
- 10 WASH 27 WSU 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Washington wins 80% of them, Washington State 20%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 35.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Washington by 17+ | 34.1% |
| Washington by 9–16 | 20.0% |
| Washington by 1–8 | 21.4% |
| Level after regulation | 4.9% |
| Washington State by 1–8 | 11.6% |
| Washington State by 9–16 | 5.9% |
| Washington State by 17+ | 2.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Stevens, 36 yds made · 80% expected
- G. Gross, 51 yds made · 51% expected
Penalties: Washington 3 for 20 yards, Washington State 2 for 10 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:12 | False Start on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:57 | Holding on Washington, 10 yards | 0% WSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:55 | Offside on Washington, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% WSU +0.1 pts |
| Q4 11:07 | Holding on Washington, 10 yards | 0% WSU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Illegal Snap on Washington State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WASH +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Washington State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 15:00 | Washington converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expectedWashington converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +1% WASH | WASH: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:06 | Washington State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +1% WSU | WSU: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 8:06 | Washington State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +1% WSU | WSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 0:25 | G. Gross made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 51% expected for him, 3 of 6 from 45+ before | +1% WASH | WASH: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 5:13 | Washington State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +1% WASH | WSU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 4:28 | Washington State converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +2% WSU | WSU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 12:49 | Washington converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +1% WASH | WASH: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 12:22 | Washington State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +1% WSU | WSU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Washington 100% · Washington State 0%
- Final margin
- Washington by 35
- Luck in points
- 7.2 for Washington
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Washington by 27.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Washington 80% · Washington State 20% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Washington · 
Washington State
More from Week 4 2025
- Michigan at Nebraska MICH 30–27 · replay 39% for the winner
- Iowa at Rutgers IOWA 38–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- Maryland at Wisconsin MD 27–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Michigan State at USC USC 45–31 · replay 89% for the winner
- Oregon State at Oregon ORE 41–7 · replay 100% for the winner
- Purdue at Notre Dame ND 56–30 · replay 100% for the winner
- Illinois at Indiana IU 63–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner
- Syracuse at Clemson SYR 34–21 · replay 34% for the winner
- NC State at Duke DUKE 45–33 · replay 35% for the winner