Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Oregon State at Oregon, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Oregon beat Oregon State 41–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oregon wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Oregon was a 99% favorite.
Final
 Oregon State Beavers | 7 |
|---|---|
 Oregon Ducks | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Oregon about even · 0 Oregon State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oregon State wins 0, Oregon wins 10.
- 1 ORST 3 ORE 14
- 2 ORST 0 ORE 20
- 3 ORST 0 ORE 23
- 4 ORST 7 ORE 34
- 5 ORST 0 ORE 30
- 6 ORST 7 ORE 40
- 7 ORST 0 ORE 35
- 8 ORST 3 ORE 41
- 9 ORST 0 ORE 42
- 10 ORST 0 ORE 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oregon State wins 0% of them, Oregon 100%. The line is what actually happened: Oregon by 34.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oregon State by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Oregon State by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Oregon State by 1–8 | 0.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Oregon by 1–8 | 0.9% |
| Oregon by 9–16 | 2.7% |
| Oregon by 17+ | 96.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Sappington, 24 yds made · 93% expected
- A. Sappington, 28 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: Oregon State 2 for 10 yards, Oregon 5 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:59 | Ineligible Downfield on Oregon State, 5 yards | 0% ORE +0.7 pts |
| Q1 5:00 | False Start on Oregon State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.5 pts |
| Q1 0:00 | Holding on Oregon, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% ORST +2.2 pts |
| Q3 2:14 | False Start on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:16 | Holding on Oregon, 10 yards | 0% ORST +0.9 pts |
| Q4 11:34 | Illegal Block on Oregon, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ORST +2.1 pts |
| Q4 5:09 | Delay of Game on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORST +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Oregon’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:30 | Oregon was stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +0% ORST | ORE: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 7:20 | Oregon State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% ORST | ORST: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:44 | Oregon State converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +1% ORST | ORST: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 0:00 | Holding on Oregon, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% ORST | ORST: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 14:56 | Oregon was stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +0% ORST | ORE: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 11:59 | Oregon State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +0% ORE | ORST: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 9:13 | Oregon converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +0% ORE | ORE: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 8:12 | Oregon converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +1% ORE | ORE: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oregon State 0% · Oregon 100%
- Final margin
- Oregon by 34
- Luck in points
- 4.4 for Oregon
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oregon by 29.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Oregon State 0% · Oregon 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Oregon State · 
Oregon
More from Week 4 2025
- Michigan at Nebraska MICH 30–27 · replay 39% for the winner
- Iowa at Rutgers IOWA 38–28 · replay 80% for the winner
- Washington at Washington State WASH 59–24 · replay 80% for the winner
- Maryland at Wisconsin MD 27–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Michigan State at USC USC 45–31 · replay 89% for the winner
- Purdue at Notre Dame ND 56–30 · replay 100% for the winner
- Illinois at Indiana IU 63–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner
- Syracuse at Clemson SYR 34–21 · replay 34% for the winner
- NC State at Duke DUKE 45–33 · replay 35% for the winner