luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025

NC State at Duke, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

Duke beat NC State 45–33, but the replays lean toward NC State: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 13 points of win probability to Duke.

Before kickoff Duke was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 5:40 left): K. Vinesett had a 25-yard field goal blocked, worth 8 points of win probability to Duke.

Final

NC State Wolfpack 33
Duke Blue Devils 45

September 20, 2025 · Wallace Wade Stadium · Closing line: Duke −3

Luck index +65 Duke very lucky · −65 NC State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. NC State wins 6, Duke wins 4.

  1. 1 NCSU 49 DUKE 17
  2. 2 NCSU 35 DUKE 13
  3. 3 NCSU 34 DUKE 17
  4. 4 NCSU 30 DUKE 19
  5. 5 NCSU 31 DUKE 24
  6. 6 NCSU 24 DUKE 21
  7. 7 NCSU 31 DUKE 34
  8. 8 NCSU 24 DUKE 34
  9. 9 NCSU 21 DUKE 35
  10. 10 NCSU 14 DUKE 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

NC State wins 65% of them, Duke 35%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Duke by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
NC State by 17+28.0%
NC State by 9–1615.6%
NC State by 1–819.8%
Level after regulation5.8%
Duke by 1–814.2%
Duke by 9–169.0%
Duke by 17+7.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.7 points to Duke: the final margin was Duke by 12, without the luck Duke by 7.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • K. Vinesett, 25 yds blocked · 91% expected
  • T. Pelino, 43 yds made · 68% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: NC State 6 for 49 yards, Duke 7 for 73 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:41 Offside on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DUKE +0.7 pts
Q1 8:38 Delay of Game on Duke, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NCSU +0.5 pts
Q1 3:55 False Start on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DUKE +0.5 pts
Q1 1:42 Holding on NC State, 10 yards +3% DUKE +1.5 pts
Q2 12:50 Pass Interference on NC State, 14 yards +5% DUKE +2.1 pts
Q2 8:13 Face Mask on Duke, 15 yards +2% NCSU +0.9 pts
Q2 5:45 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Duke, 0 yards 0% NCSU 0.0 pts
Q2 0:41 Pass Interference on NC State, 10 yards +7% DUKE +2.5 pts
Q3 8:27 Personal Foul on Duke, 15 yards +3% NCSU +0.9 pts
Q3 5:36 Holding on Duke, 8 yards +3% NCSU +1.6 pts
Q3 3:53 Offside on NC State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DUKE +0.5 pts
Q4 9:19 Pass Interference on Duke, 15 yards +3% NCSU +1.8 pts
Q4 1:24 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Duke, 15 yards 0% DUKE +1.7 pts

When it happened

Duke’s chance of winning

As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Duke was ahead in it, below while NC State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:10 NC State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% NCSU NCSU: Turnover
2 Q1 12:32 Duke converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% DUKE DUKE: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:50 Pass Interference on NC State, 14 yardsJudgment calls +5% DUKE DUKE: Punt
4 Q2 11:19 Duke was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +4% NCSU DUKE: Punt
5 Q2 6:45 NC State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +4% NCSU NCSU: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:41 Pass Interference on NC State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% DUKE DUKE: Touchdown
7 Q3 5:40 K. Vinesett had a 25-yard field goal blockedKicks · 91% expected for him +8% DUKE NCSU: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 5:39 NC State converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +6% NCSU NCSU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

NC State 10% · Duke 90%

Final margin
Duke by 12
Luck in points
4.7 for Duke
Luck-adjusted margin
Duke by 7.3
Replay with same day's form
NC State 65% · Duke 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · NC State · Duke

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