luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025

Stanford at Virginia, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

Virginia beat Stanford 48–20, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Virginia wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Virginia was an 86% favorite.

Final

Stanford Cardinal 20
Virginia Cavaliers 48

September 20, 2025 · Scott Stadium · Closing line: Virginia −16.5

Luck index +1 Virginia about even · −1 Stanford

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Stanford wins 0, Virginia wins 10.

  1. 1 STAN 34 UVA 40
  2. 2 STAN 21 UVA 35
  3. 3 STAN 28 UVA 46
  4. 4 STAN 21 UVA 43
  5. 5 STAN 14 UVA 40
  6. 6 STAN 10 UVA 38
  7. 7 STAN 10 UVA 42
  8. 8 STAN 14 UVA 51
  9. 9 STAN 14 UVA 55
  10. 10 STAN 7 UVA 56

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Stanford wins 1% of them, Virginia 99%. The line is what actually happened: Virginia by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Stanford by 17+0.0%
Stanford by 9–160.1%
Stanford by 1–80.9%
Level after regulation0.1%
Virginia by 1–81.9%
Virginia by 9–166.9%
Virginia by 17+90.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 points to Virginia: the final margin was Virginia by 28, without the luck Virginia by 26. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • W. Bettridge, 25 yds missed · 92% expected
  • W. Bettridge, 28 yds made · 89% expected
  • W. Bettridge, 26 yds made · 91% expected
  • E. Kenney, 42 yds missed · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Stanford 3 for 35 yards, Virginia 7 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:28 Offside on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UVA +1.7 pts
Q2 9:05 Delay of Game on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% STAN +0.6 pts
Q2 3:05 Holding on Virginia, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% STAN +3.2 pts
Q3 8:54 False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% STAN +0.5 pts
Q3 6:44 Delay of Game on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% STAN +0.6 pts
Q3 6:15 False Start on Virginia, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% STAN +0.3 pts
Q3 0:37 Holding on Virginia, 10 yards 0% STAN +1.6 pts
Q3 0:05 Pass Interference on Stanford, 15 yards 0% UVA +2.5 pts
Q4 13:54 Pass Interference on Stanford, 15 yards 0% UVA +0.4 pts
Q4 8:20 Holding on Virginia, 10 yards 0% STAN +0.8 pts

When it happened

Virginia’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Virginia was ahead in it, below while Stanford was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:41 Stanford was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +1% UVA STAN: Punt
2 Q1 11:08 Virginia converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +0% UVA UVA: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:35 Stanford converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +2% STAN STAN: Touchdown
4 Q1 7:04 Stanford was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +1% UVA STAN: Punt
5 Q1 5:28 Offside on Stanford, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% UVA UVA: Touchdown
6 Q1 0:14 Stanford was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +0% UVA STAN: Punt
7 Q2 13:11 Virginia was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +0% STAN UVA: Touchdown
8 Q3 13:42 Virginia converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +0% UVA UVA: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Stanford 0% · Virginia 100%

Final margin
Virginia by 28
Luck in points
2.0 for Virginia
Luck-adjusted margin
Virginia by 26.0
Replay with same day's form
Stanford 1% · Virginia 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Stanford · Virginia

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