luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025

North Carolina at UCF, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

UCF beat North Carolina 34–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UCF wins 9 of 10. North Carolina had the bounces: pre-snap flags alone were worth 9 points of win probability to North Carolina.

Before kickoff UCF was a 68% favorite.

Final

North Carolina Tar Heels 9
UCF Knights 34

September 20, 2025 · FBC Mortgage Stadium · Closing line: UCF −7

Luck index +9 UCF about even · −9 North Carolina

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. North Carolina wins 1, UCF wins 9.

  1. 1 UNC 31 UCF 24
  2. 2 UNC 17 UCF 20
  3. 3 UNC 20 UCF 27
  4. 4 UNC 10 UCF 20
  5. 5 UNC 7 UCF 20
  6. 6 UNC 10 UCF 27
  7. 7 UNC 10 UCF 30
  8. 8 UNC 10 UCF 33
  9. 9 UNC 0 UCF 28
  10. 10 UNC 0 UCF 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

North Carolina wins 9% of them, UCF 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UCF by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
North Carolina by 17+0.8%
North Carolina by 9–162.3%
North Carolina by 1–85.5%
Level after regulation1.8%
UCF by 1–819.7%
UCF by 9–1620.0%
UCF by 17+50.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.9 points to North Carolina: the final margin was UCF by 25, without the luck UCF by 29.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Ruelas, 36 yds made · 79% expected
  • N. Ruelas, 41 yds made · 71% expected
  • R. Verhoff, 40 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: North Carolina 6 for 52 yards, UCF 7 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:14 False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNC +0.8 pts
Q1 6:51 Offside on UCF, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +6% UNC +4.0 pts
Q2 11:25 False Start on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% UNC +0.4 pts
Q2 10:09 Illegal Formation on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNC +0.6 pts
Q2 5:27 Penalty on North Carolina, 2 yards 0% UCF 0.0 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on North Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UCF +0.4 pts
Q2 1:06 Illegal Formation on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNC +0.6 pts
Q2 0:57 Holding on North Carolina, 10 yards +1% UCF +0.8 pts
Q2 0:37 Roughing the Passer on North Carolina, 15 yards +1% UCF +0.5 pts
Q4 14:56 Offside on UCF, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% UNC +1.4 pts
Q4 12:38 Holding on North Carolina, 10 yards +1% UCF +1.5 pts
Q4 9:41 Holding on UCF, 10 yards 0% UNC +1.7 pts
Q4 1:46 Holding on North Carolina, 10 yards 0% UCF +0.2 pts

When it happened

UCF’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while UCF was ahead in it, below while North Carolina was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:17 UCF converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +3% UCF UCF: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:39 UCF converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected +2% UCF UCF: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:53 UCF converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +3% UCF UCF: Touchdown
4 Q1 8:23 UCF converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +2% UCF UCF: Field goal
5 Q1 6:51 Offside on UCF, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +6% UNC UNC: Turnover
6 Q1 6:43 North Carolina converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +3% UNC UNC: Turnover
7 Q1 5:22 UCF was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +2% UNC UCF: Field goal
8 Q1 3:36 North Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +2% UCF UNC: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

North Carolina 0% · UCF 100%

Final margin
UCF by 25
Luck in points
4.9 for North Carolina
Luck-adjusted margin
UCF by 29.9
Replay with same day's form
North Carolina 9% · UCF 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · North Carolina · UCF

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