luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025

Arizona State at Baylor, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?

Arizona State beat Baylor 27–24, but the replays lean toward Baylor: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form.

Before kickoff Baylor was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:50 left): Arizona State converted 3rd & 13, worth 17 points of win probability to Arizona State.

Final

Arizona State Sun Devils 27
Baylor Bears 24

September 20, 2025 · McLane Stadium · Closing line: Baylor −3

Luck index +61 Arizona State very lucky · −61 Baylor

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Arizona State wins 4, Baylor wins 6.

  1. 1 ASU 35 BAY 13
  2. 2 ASU 35 BAY 21
  3. 3 ASU 34 BAY 27
  4. 4 ASU 20 BAY 17
  5. 5 ASU 21 BAY 24
  6. 6 ASU 3 BAY 9
  7. 7 ASU 16 BAY 25
  8. 8 ASU 14 BAY 27
  9. 9 ASU 7 BAY 24
  10. 10 ASU 21 BAY 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Arizona State wins 39% of them, Baylor 61%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Arizona State by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Arizona State by 17+8.0%
Arizona State by 9–1610.3%
Arizona State by 1–816.5%
Level after regulation4.9%
Baylor by 1–822.7%
Baylor by 9–1617.0%
Baylor by 17+20.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 points to Arizona State: the final margin was Arizona State by 3, without the luck Arizona State by 2.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Gomez, 31 yds made · 86% expected
  • C. Hawkins, 53 yds made · 48% expected
  • J. Gomez, 21 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Gomez, 33 yds made · 84% expected
  • J. Gomez, 43 yds made · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Arizona State 7 for 70 yards, Baylor 6 for 74 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:23 Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards +2% ASU +0.9 pts
Q1 9:17 False Start on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAY +0.6 pts
Q1 1:57 Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards +1% BAY +0.6 pts
Q2 11:10 Personal Foul on Baylor, 15 yards +4% ASU +1.6 pts
Q2 9:05 Pass Interference on Baylor, 14 yards +2% ASU +0.8 pts
Q2 8:59 Illegal Formation on Arizona State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BAY +0.8 pts
Q2 6:15 Pass Interference on Arizona State, 15 yards +2% BAY +1.0 pts
Q2 3:50 Pass Interference on Arizona State, 15 yards +5% BAY +1.9 pts
Q2 1:17 Holding on Baylor, 10 yards +1% ASU +0.5 pts
Q3 7:24 Pass Interference on Baylor, 15 yards +4% ASU +1.4 pts
Q3 3:08 Holding on Arizona State, 10 yards +3% BAY +1.0 pts
Q4 1:45 Offside on Baylor, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ASU 0.0 pts
Q4 1:17 Personal Foul on Baylor, 15 yards +9% ASU +1.1 pts

When it happened

Baylor’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Baylor was ahead in it, below while Arizona State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:24 Arizona State was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% BAY ASU: Field goal
2 Q2 12:41 Baylor was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +7% ASU BAY: Touchdown
3 Q2 9:53 Arizona State converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +7% ASU ASU: Touchdown
4 Q2 7:20 Arizona State converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% ASU ASU: Touchdown
5 Q4 11:51 Baylor converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +8% BAY BAY: Touchdown
6 Q4 7:50 Arizona State converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +17% ASU ASU: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:48 Baylor converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +8% BAY BAY: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:17 Personal Foul on Baylor, 15 yardsJudgment calls +9% ASU ASU: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Arizona State 66% · Baylor 34%

Final margin
Arizona State by 3
Luck in points
0.2 for Arizona State
Luck-adjusted margin
Arizona State by 2.8
Replay with same day's form
Arizona State 39% · Baylor 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · Arizona State · Baylor

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