Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Fresno State at Hawai'i, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
Fresno State beat Hawai'i 23–21, but the replays lean toward Hawai'i: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form.
Fresno State won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Hawai'i it would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%. The numbers
Before kickoff Fresno State was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:20 left): Return touchdown by Fresno State, worth 48 points of win probability to Fresno State.
Final
 Fresno State Bulldogs | 23 |
|---|---|
 Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +76 Fresno State very lucky · −76 Hawai'i
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Fresno State wins 2, Hawai'i wins 8.
- 1 FRES 21 HAW 7
- 2 FRES 17 HAW 13
- 3 FRES 6 HAW 7
- 4 FRES 17 HAW 21
- 5 FRES 0 HAW 7
- 6 FRES 7 HAW 17
- 7 FRES 7 HAW 20
- 8 FRES 0 HAW 16
- 9 FRES 0 HAW 20
- 10 FRES 3 HAW 29
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Fresno State won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Hawai'i it would win 60% of the time; with this day’s form, 24%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
36 points apart for Fresno State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno State offenseEPA per play gained | +0.07 | +0.09 | worse by 0.02 |
| Fresno State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.05 | +0.08 | better by 0.13 |
| Hawai'i offenseEPA per play gained | −0.05 | +0.06 | worse by 0.11 |
| Hawai'i defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.06 | worse by 0.01 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Fresno State wins 24% of them, Hawai'i 76%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Fresno State by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Fresno State by 17+ | 2.8% |
| Fresno State by 9–16 | 6.7% |
| Fresno State by 1–8 | 13.7% |
| Level after regulation | 3.8% |
| Hawai'i by 1–8 | 23.9% |
| Hawai'i by 9–16 | 22.7% |
| Hawai'i by 17+ | 26.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Lynch, 43 yds missed · 67% expected
- D. Lynch, 26 yds missed · 90% expected
- K. Matsuzawa, 40 yds made · 74% expected
- K. Matsuzawa, 52 yds made · 52% expected
- D. Lynch, 54 yds missed · 46% expected
- D. Lynch, 27 yds made · 88% expected
Penalties: Fresno State 8 for 102 yards, Hawai'i 5 for 24 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:38 | Illegal Substitution on Hawai'i, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% FRES +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:31 | Holding on Fresno State, 4 yards | 0% FRES +0.2 pts |
| Q2 4:25 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +9% HAW +3.1 pts |
| Q2 2:33 | Ineligible Downfield on Fresno State, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% HAW +0.9 pts |
| Q3 13:21 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% FRES +0.7 pts |
| Q3 4:35 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% FRES +0.8 pts |
| Q3 0:00 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards | +4% HAW +1.1 pts |
| Q4 14:06 | Personal Foul on Fresno State, 15 yards | 0% HAW +1.6 pts |
| Q4 5:20 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FRES +0.5 pts |
| Q4 5:11 | Roughing the Passer on Fresno State, 30 yards | +6% HAW +2.6 pts |
| Q4 5:11 | Personal Foul on Fresno State, 14 yards | +6% HAW +1.6 pts |
| Q4 3:06 | Pass Interference on Fresno State, 14 yards | +2% HAW +0.8 pts |
| Q4 0:56 | Illegal Motion on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FRES +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Hawai'i’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 12:38 | D. Lynch missed a 26-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him | +8% HAW | FRES: Safety |
| 2 | Q2 4:25 | Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% HAW | HAW: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 1:47 | Fresno State fumbled and Hawai'i recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Hawai'iSpecial teams | +36% HAW | FRES: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 4:09 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +10% HAW | HAW: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 12:46 | D. Lynch missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 46% expected for him, 6 of 14 from 45+ before | +8% HAW | FRES: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 6:35 | Hawai'i converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +9% HAW | HAW: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 5:20 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by Fresno StateSpecial teams | +48% FRES | FRES: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:10 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expectedHawai'i’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +12% FRES | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Fresno State 86% · Hawai'i 14%
- Final margin
- Fresno State by 2
- Luck in points
- 6.1 for Hawai'i
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Fresno State by 8.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Fresno State 24% · Hawai'i 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Fresno State · 
Hawai'i
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