Week 4 2025 · September 20, 2025
Idaho at San José State, Week 4 2025: who deserved to win?
San José State beat Idaho 31–28, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, San José State wins 9 of 10. Idaho had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 16 points of win probability to Idaho.
Before kickoff San José State was an 82% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:08 left): D. Lynch made a 48-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to San José State.
Final
 Idaho Vandals | 28 |
|---|---|
 San José State Spartans | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +9 San José State about even · −9 Idaho
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Idaho wins 1, San José State wins 9.
- 1 IDHO 35 SJSU 28
- 2 IDHO 38 SJSU 41
- 3 IDHO 21 SJSU 28
- 4 IDHO 20 SJSU 31
- 5 IDHO 24 SJSU 38
- 6 IDHO 17 SJSU 35
- 7 IDHO 17 SJSU 38
- 8 IDHO 17 SJSU 43
- 9 IDHO 6 SJSU 38
- 10 IDHO 21 SJSU 63
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Idaho wins 9% of them, San José State 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: San José State by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Idaho by 17+ | 0.5% |
| Idaho by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Idaho by 1–8 | 5.3% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| San José State by 1–8 | 12.6% |
| San José State by 9–16 | 20.2% |
| San José State by 17+ | 58.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Pope, 34 yds missed · 80% expected
- D. Lynch, 48 yds made · 55% expected
Penalties: Idaho 9 for 63 yards, San José State 4 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:09 | False Start on Idaho, 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% SJSU +5.4 pts |
| Q1 3:49 | Holding on Idaho, 8 yards, wiping out the play | +5% SJSU +2.6 pts |
| Q2 12:03 | Personal Foul on San José State, 15 yards | +3% IDHO +1.2 pts |
| Q2 9:24 | Holding on Idaho, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% SJSU +1.7 pts |
| Q2 2:55 | False Start on San José State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% IDHO +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:37 | Pass Interference on San José State, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +9% IDHO +3.6 pts |
| Q3 7:00 | Illegal Shift on Idaho, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SJSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:51 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on San José State, 15 yards | 0% IDHO +2.7 pts |
| Q3 1:05 | False Start on Idaho, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SJSU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 4:37 | False Start on Idaho, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SJSU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 3:29 | Delay of Game on Idaho, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SJSU +0.2 pts |
| Q4 0:56 | Offside on Idaho, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SJSU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:08 | Leaping on Idaho, 15 yards | +1% SJSU +0.1 pts |
When it happened
San José State’s chance of winning
As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 8:15 | Idaho converted 3rd & 273rd & 4th downs · 14% expected | +9% IDHO | IDHO: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 0:37 | Pass Interference on San José State, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +9% IDHO | IDHO: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q3 5:11 | Idaho converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +8% IDHO | IDHO: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 2:31 | San José State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +7% SJSU | SJSU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 14:06 | Idaho converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +9% IDHO | IDHO: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 9:17 | Idaho converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +10% IDHO | IDHO: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 3:29 | Idaho was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedDelay of Game on Idaho, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +9% SJSU | IDHO: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:08 | D. Lynch made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 0 of 3 from 45+ beforeLeaping on Idaho, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +13% SJSU | SJSU: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Idaho 59% · San José State 41%
- Final margin
- San José State by 3
- Luck in points
- 5.1 for San José State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Idaho by 2.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Idaho 9% · San José State 91% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2025 games · 
Idaho · 
San José State
More from Week 4 2025
- Fresno State at Hawai'i FRES 23–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- UTSA at Colorado State UTSA 17–16 · replay 40% for the winner
- UNLV at Miami (OH) UNLV 41–38 · replay 50% for the winner
- Nevada at Western Kentucky WKU 31–16 · replay 73% for the winner
- Boise State at Air Force BOIS 49–37 · replay 75% for the winner
- Wyoming at Colorado COLO 37–20 · replay 91% for the winner
- California at San Diego State SDSU 34–0 · replay 92% for the winner
- McNeese at Utah State USU 48–7 · replay 97% for the winner
- Troy at Buffalo TROY 21–17 · replay 30% for the winner
- Arkansas at Memphis MEM 32–31 · replay 30% for the winner
- Syracuse at Clemson SYR 34–21 · replay 34% for the winner
- NC State at Duke DUKE 45–33 · replay 35% for the winner