Mountain West · 2026 season, in progress

Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors: luck and expected wins

Hawai'i is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 0.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 44th-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.

2026, game by game

How often Hawai'i wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Stanford	L 27–37	3%	−3
Week 1	vs UNLV	L 6–21	5%	−5
Week 2	vs New Mexico State	W 29–19	44%	+56
Week 4	@ Wyoming	L 10–27	17%	−17

Wk 1 −3 @ STAN

Wk 1 −5 vs UNLV

Wk 2 +56 vs NMSU

Wk 4 −17 @ WYO

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Hawai'i win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs San José State	Hawai'i by 3.1	58%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Arizona State	Arizona State by 19.9	11%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs New Mexico	New Mexico by 14.4	19%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at Northern Illinois	Hawai'i by 1.0	52%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at UTEP	Hawai'i by 4.6	61%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs North Dakota State	North Dakota State by 14.6	19%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at Nevada	Nevada by 5.7	37%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Sacramento State	Hawai'i by 14.3	80%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Hawai'i’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
3rd & 4th downs	+0.19	−3.9
Pre-snap flags	−0.13	−4.9
Kicks	−0.14	+0.7
Fumble bounces	−0.27	−8.4

Luckiest wins

Wins Hawai'i takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 5	@ Air Force	W 44–35	5%	+95
2025 Sheraton Hawaiʻi Bowl	vs California	W 35–31	9%	+91
2026 Week 2	vs New Mexico State	W 29–19	44%	+56
2025 Week 3	vs Portland State	W 23–3	63%	+37
2025 Week 7	vs Utah State	W 44–26	75%	+25

Unluckiest losses

Losses Hawai'i would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 4	vs Fresno State	L 21–23	76%	−76
2025 Week 10	@ San José State	L 38–45	22%	−22
2026 Week 4	@ Wyoming	L 10–27	17%	−17
2025 Week 1	@ Arizona	L 6–40	10%	−10
2026 Week 1	vs UNLV	L 6–21	5%	−5

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	8–4	7.0	+1.0	1–2	1–0

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Stanford	W 23–20	75%	+25
Week 1	@ Arizona	L 6–40	10%	−10
Week 2	vs Sam Houston	W 37–20	89%	+11
Week 3	vs Portland State	W 23–3	63%	+37
Week 4	vs Fresno State	L 21–23	76%	−76
Week 5	@ Air Force	W 44–35	5%	+95
Week 7	vs Utah State	W 44–26	75%	+25
Week 8	@ Colorado State	W 31–19	94%	+6
Week 10	@ San José State	L 38–45	22%	−22
Week 11	vs San Diego State	W 38–6	99%	+1
Week 13	@ UNLV	L 10–38	1%	−1
Week 14	vs Wyoming	W 27–7	89%	+11
Sheraton Hawaiʻi Bowl	vs California	W 35–31	9%	+91