North Dakota State Bison: luck and expected wins

2026, game by game

How often North Dakota State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	North Dakota State win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Wyoming	North Dakota State by 23.2	93%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at UNLV	North Dakota State by 3.9	60%
Week 7 · Oct 17	vs Nevada	North Dakota State by 18.3	87%
Week 8 · Oct 24	at New Mexico	New Mexico by 2.9	43%
Week 9 · Oct 31	vs UTEP	North Dakota State by 28.7	96%
Week 11 · Nov 14	at Hawai'i	North Dakota State by 14.6	81%
Week 12 · Nov 21	vs Northern Illinois	North Dakota State by 25.1	93%
Week 13 · Nov 27	at San José State	North Dakota State by 14.6	80%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in North Dakota State’s favor.

Luckiest wins

Wins North Dakota State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Unluckiest losses

Losses North Dakota State would win most often in a replay.