College football · Week 12 2026 · Saturday, November 21
Northern Illinois vs North Dakota State prediction and pick
Our Northern Illinois Huskies at North Dakota State Bison pick: North Dakota State by 25.1, 93% to win. The forecast rates every team against the opponents it has played, this season and last, and adds home field. No betting information goes in.
An early look, 8 weeks ahead: it sharpens as the game comes up. Updated every day until kickoff, then frozen and scored. After the game this page shows who deserved to win.
Why the curves are so wide: luck. Even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks, calls and sequencing move the final margin by about ±12.1 points (one standard deviation, measured from every play since 2019). These forecasts carry ±17.1, so about 50% of the width is that luck; the rest is what nobody knows yet about the teams. That is why a 7-point favorite still loses about 3 times in 10.
Ours: North Dakota State by 25.1Northern Illinois win 7%North Dakota State win 93%5649423528211470714212835424956← Northern Illinois win byNorth Dakota State win by →P50P90P95
Show as a table
Outcome
Chance
Northern Illinois win
7.0%
North Dakota State win
93.0%
Middle 50%: North Dakota State by 14 to North Dakota State by 37
50%
Middle 90%: Northern Illinois by 3 to North Dakota State by 53
90%
Middle 95%: Northern Illinois by 8 to North Dakota State by 58
95%
Exactly North Dakota State by 28
4.3%
Exactly North Dakota State by 21
4.1%
Exactly North Dakota State by 56
3.9%
Exactly North Dakota State by 17
3.6%
Exactly North Dakota State by 14
3.4%
P50
Half of games like this end between North Dakota State by 14 and North Dakota State by 37.
P90
9 in 10 between Northern Illinois by 3 and North Dakota State by 53.
P95
19 in 20 between Northern Illinois by 8 and North Dakota State by 58.
Coin-flip wins: the wins each team’s games were worth with only the kicks, bounces, drops and calls re-rolled, the record adjusted for luck. Luck in wins: actual wins minus what the play was worth.
Northern Illinois vs North Dakota State: questions and answers
Who will win Northern Illinois vs North Dakota State?
Our forecast picks North Dakota State, with 93% to win; Northern Illinois win 7% of the time.
What’s the spread for Northern Illinois vs North Dakota State?
Our spread: North Dakota State −25.1. The betting line isn’t out yet. Ours uses no betting information, so where the two differ is where our read of the teams differs from the market’s.
When is Northern Illinois vs North Dakota State?
Saturday, November 21, 2026, at 4:00 pm ET, at Fargodome.
Northern Illinois at 
North Dakota State
