Mountain West · 2026 season, in progress
Northern Illinois Huskies: luck and expected wins
Northern Illinois is 0–4 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.2 wins. Luck cost 1.2: the 8th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.
2026, game by game
How often Northern Illinois wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Iowa | L 0–40 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Illinois State | L 24–28 | 83% | −83 |
| Week 3 | @ Arizona | L 17–42 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 4 | @ Georgia State | L 14–35 | 20% | −20 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Northern Illinois win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs Air Force |  Air Force by 8.0 | 31% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | at Wyoming |  Wyoming by 5.0 | 38% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs Hawai'i |  Hawai'i by 1.0 | 48% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at UNLV |  UNLV by 18.1 | 14% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at San José State |  San José State by 7.3 | 33% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Nevada |  Nevada by 3.6 | 42% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | at North Dakota State |  North Dakota State by 25.1 | 7% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | vs UTEP |  Northern Illinois by 6.8 | 66% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Northern Illinois’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-snap flags | −0.03 | −1.1 |
| Kicks | −0.07 | −5.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.24 | −13.0 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Northern Illinois takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 1 | vs Holy Cross | W 19–17 | 59% | +41 |
| 2025 Week 9 | vs Ball State | W 21–7 | 68% | +32 |
| 2025 Week 12 | @ Massachusetts | W 45–3 | 99% | +1 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Northern Illinois would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 2 | vs Illinois State | L 24–28 | 83% | −83 |
| 2025 Week 7 | @ Eastern Michigan | L 10–16 | 53% | −53 |
| 2025 Week 14 | vs Kent State | L 31–35 | 44% | −44 |
| 2025 Week 6 | vs Miami (OH) | L 14–25 | 25% | −25 |
| 2026 Week 4 | @ Georgia State | L 14–35 | 20% | −20 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3–9 | 3.9 | −0.9 | 1–3 | – |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Holy Cross | W 19–17 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 2 | @ Maryland | L 9–20 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 4 | @ Mississippi State | L 10–38 | 12% | −12 |
| Week 5 | vs San Diego State | L 3–6 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 6 | vs Miami (OH) | L 14–25 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 7 | @ Eastern Michigan | L 10–16 | 53% | −53 |
| Week 8 | @ Ohio | L 21–48 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 9 | vs Ball State | W 21–7 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 11 | @ Toledo | L 3–42 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 12 | @ Massachusetts | W 45–3 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 13 | vs Western Michigan | L 19–35 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 14 | vs Kent State | L 31–35 | 44% | −44 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Mountain West teams by luck
- Mountain West: Air Force, Hawai'i, Nevada,
New Mexico, North Dakota State, San José State, UNLV, 
UTEP, Wyoming
How many wins does Northern Illinois have in 2026?
0–4 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 1.2 wins.
Was Northern Illinois lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Unlucky so far: −1.2 wins of luck, the 8th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Northern Illinois’s luckiest season?
2025: 3–9 from play worth 3.9 wins, −0.9 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 0–4 from play worth 1.2 (−1.2).