Week 12 2025 · November 12, 2025
Northern Illinois at Massachusetts, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Northern Illinois beat Massachusetts 45–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Northern Illinois wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Northern Illinois was a 73% favorite.
Final
 Northern Illinois Huskies | 45 |
|---|---|
 Massachusetts Minutemen | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Northern Illinois about even · −1 Massachusetts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Northern Illinois wins 10, Massachusetts wins 0.
- 1 NIU 45 MASS 0
- 2 NIU 41 MASS 3
- 3 NIU 34 MASS 0
- 4 NIU 30 MASS 0
- 5 NIU 37 MASS 10
- 6 NIU 45 MASS 21
- 7 NIU 21 MASS 0
- 8 NIU 31 MASS 14
- 9 NIU 34 MASS 21
- 10 NIU 10 MASS 3
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Northern Illinois wins 99% of them, Massachusetts 1%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Northern Illinois by 42.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Northern Illinois by 17+ | 82.3% |
| Northern Illinois by 9–16 | 10.9% |
| Northern Illinois by 1–8 | 5.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Massachusetts by 1–8 | 0.9% |
| Massachusetts by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Massachusetts by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Glass, 37 yds made · 77% expected
- D. Morris, 49 yds missed · 56% expected
- D. Morris, 44 yds made · 65% expected
Penalties: Northern Illinois 3 for 35 yards, Massachusetts 3 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:05 | False Start on Massachusetts, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NIU +0.3 pts |
| Q2 9:07 | Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 15 yards | +1% MASS +1.5 pts |
| Q3 8:31 | Face Mask on Massachusetts, 15 yards | 0% NIU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 8:10 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Massachusetts, 15 yards | 0% NIU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 4:19 | False Start on Northern Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:54 | Face Mask on Northern Illinois, 15 yards | 0% MASS +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Massachusetts’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:56 | Massachusetts was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +2% NIU | MASS: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:16 | Northern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +2% MASS | NIU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 10:41 | A. Glass made a 37-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him | +3% NIU | NIU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 8:22 | Northern Illinois converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +2% NIU | NIU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 6:44 | Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +2% NIU | NIU: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 4:53 | Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% MASS | NIU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q1 3:03 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected | +4% MASS | MASS: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q2 14:56 | Massachusetts was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +3% NIU | MASS: Missed field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Northern Illinois 100% · Massachusetts 0%
- Final margin
- Northern Illinois by 42
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for Northern Illinois
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Northern Illinois by 40.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Northern Illinois 99% · Massachusetts 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Northern Illinois · 
Massachusetts
More from Week 12 2025
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Toledo at Miami (OH) TOL 24–3 · replay 82% for the winner
- Eastern Michigan at Ball State EMU 24–9 · replay 82% for the winner
- Ohio at Western Michigan WMU 17–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Buffalo at Central Michigan CMU 38–19 · replay 87% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Air Force at UConn CONN 26–16 · replay 55% for the winner