luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 12 2025 · November 12, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 50 of the 57 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Buffalo at Central Michigan, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?

Central Michigan beat Buffalo 38–19, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Central Michigan wins 9 of 10.

Before kickoff Central Michigan was a 56% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:51 left): Central Michigan converted 3rd & 15, worth 9 points of win probability to Central Michigan.

Final

Buffalo Bulls 19
Central Michigan Chippewas 38

November 12, 2025 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium · Closing line: Central Michigan −2.5

Luck index +13 Central Michigan about even · −13 Buffalo

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buffalo wins 1, Central Michigan wins 9.

  1. 1 BUF 28 CMU 20
  2. 2 BUF 28 CMU 31
  3. 3 BUF 14 CMU 21
  4. 4 BUF 28 CMU 40
  5. 5 BUF 6 CMU 21
  6. 6 BUF 27 CMU 45
  7. 7 BUF 7 CMU 28
  8. 8 BUF 13 CMU 38
  9. 9 BUF 0 CMU 31
  10. 10 BUF 2 CMU 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buffalo wins 13% of them, Central Michigan 87%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Central Michigan by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buffalo by 17+1.6%
Buffalo by 9–163.9%
Buffalo by 1–86.8%
Level after regulation0.7%
Central Michigan by 1–816.8%
Central Michigan by 9–1617.8%
Central Michigan by 17+52.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 points to Buffalo: the final margin was Central Michigan by 19, without the luck Central Michigan by 19.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Howes, 29 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Graham, 32 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Howes, 42 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buffalo 5 for 35 yards, Central Michigan 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:36 False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.7 pts
Q2 0:30 False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CMU +0.2 pts
Q2 0:24 Personal Foul on Central Michigan, 15 yards +4% BUF +1.6 pts
Q3 11:50 Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% BUF +1.6 pts
Q3 5:48 False Start on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CMU +0.1 pts
Q3 5:32 Illegal Formation on Buffalo, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +7% CMU +2.1 pts
Q3 1:50 Pass Interference on Buffalo, 15 yards, wiping out the play +3% CMU +1.6 pts
Q4 1:46 Offside on Buffalo, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CMU +0.2 pts

When it happened

Central Michigan’s chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Central Michigan was ahead in it, below while Buffalo was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:12 Buffalo was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% CMU BUF: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:51 Central Michigan converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +9% CMU CMU: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:24 Personal Foul on Central Michigan, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% BUF BUF: End of half
4 Q3 14:39 Buffalo converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +8% BUF BUF: Turnover
5 Q3 13:20 Buffalo fumbled and Central Michigan recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CMU BUF: Field goal
6 Q3 11:50 Holding on Central Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% BUF BUF: Field goal
7 Q3 5:32 Illegal Formation on Buffalo, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% CMU CMU: Touchdown
8 Q3 1:50 Buffalo was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedPass Interference on Buffalo, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% CMU BUF: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buffalo 0% · Central Michigan 100%

Final margin
Central Michigan by 19
Luck in points
0.5 for Buffalo
Luck-adjusted margin
Central Michigan by 19.5
Replay with same day's form
Buffalo 13% · Central Michigan 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 50 of the 57 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · Buffalo · Central Michigan

More from Week 12 2025

Every week 12 game, 2025