Week 12 2025 · November 15, 2025
Eastern Michigan at Ball State, Week 12 2025: who deserved to win?
Eastern Michigan beat Ball State 24–9, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Eastern Michigan wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Eastern Michigan was a 56% favorite.
Final
 Eastern Michigan Eagles | 24 |
|---|---|
 Ball State Cardinals | 9 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +18 Eastern Michigan about even · −18 Ball State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eastern Michigan wins 8, Ball State wins 2.
- 1 EMU 31 BALL 0
- 2 EMU 30 BALL 7
- 3 EMU 21 BALL 3
- 4 EMU 21 BALL 7
- 5 EMU 13 BALL 0
- 6 EMU 17 BALL 7
- 7 EMU 17 BALL 10
- 8 EMU 6 BALL 3
- 9 EMU 17 BALL 20
- 10 EMU 3 BALL 13
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eastern Michigan wins 82% of them, Ball State 18%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eastern Michigan by 15.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eastern Michigan by 17+ | 32.6% |
| Eastern Michigan by 9–16 | 23.5% |
| Eastern Michigan by 1–8 | 21.2% |
| Level after regulation | 5.7% |
| Ball State by 1–8 | 11.2% |
| Ball State by 9–16 | 4.2% |
| Ball State by 17+ | 1.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Kessinger, 43 yds made · 67% expected
- D. Pippin, 25 yds made · 90% expected
- D. Pippin, 38 yds made · 75% expected
Penalties: Eastern Michigan 4 for 49 yards, Ball State 5 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:09 | Personal Foul on Eastern Michigan, 14 yards | +3% BALL +1.6 pts |
| Q1 2:10 | Pass Interference on Ball State, 15 yards | +3% EMU +1.9 pts |
| Q2 0:40 | Offside on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% EMU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 12:10 | False Start on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% EMU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 11:56 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards | +3% BALL +2.0 pts |
| Q3 0:52 | Illegal Formation on Ball State, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +5% EMU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 4:09 | Unnecessary Roughness on Eastern Michigan, 15 yards | 0% BALL +0.8 pts |
| Q4 3:58 | Unnecessary Roughness on Ball State, 15 yards | 0% EMU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 3:20 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% BALL +2.1 pts |
When it happened
Ball State’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:47 | Eastern Michigan fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% EMU | EMU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 6:44 | Ball State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +4% BALL | BALL: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 3:35 | Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +4% EMU | EMU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 8:23 | Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +5% EMU | EMU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 11:56 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% BALL | BALL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 3:37 | Ball State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +4% BALL | BALL: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q3 0:52 | Illegal Formation on Ball State, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags | +5% EMU | EMU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 14:56 | Ball State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +6% EMU | BALL: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eastern Michigan 90% · Ball State 10%
- Final margin
- Eastern Michigan by 15
- Luck in points
- 7.9 for Eastern Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Eastern Michigan by 7.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Eastern Michigan 82% · Ball State 18% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2025 games · 
Eastern Michigan · 
Ball State
More from Week 12 2025
- Kent State at Akron KENT 42–35 · replay 43% for the winner
- Toledo at Miami (OH) TOL 24–3 · replay 82% for the winner
- Ohio at Western Michigan WMU 17–13 · replay 83% for the winner
- Buffalo at Central Michigan CMU 38–19 · replay 87% for the winner
- Northern Illinois at Massachusetts NIU 45–3 · replay 99% for the winner
- Kansas State at Oklahoma State KSU 14–6 · replay 7% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Alabama OU 23–21 · replay 12% for the winner
- Clemson at Louisville CLEM 20–19 · replay 19% for the winner
- Iowa at USC USC 26–21 · replay 36% for the winner
- South Florida at Navy NAVY 41–38 · replay 38% for the winner
- Delaware vs Sam Houston SHSU 26–23 · replay 46% for the winner
- Air Force at UConn CONN 26–16 · replay 55% for the winner