MAC · 2026 season, in progress

Ball State Cardinals: luck and expected wins

Ball State is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.0 wins. Luck cost 0.0: the 57th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.

2026, game by game

How often Ball State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Ohio State	L 3–56	0%	0
Week 2	vs Stony Brook	W 41–17	92%	+8
Week 3	@ Liberty	L 15–51	0%	0
Week 4	@ Kent State	L 13–26	10%	−10

Wk 1 0 @ OSU

Wk 2 +8 vs STBK

Wk 3 0 @ LIB

Wk 4 −10 @ KENT

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Ball State win chance
Week 5 · Oct 3	vs Toledo	Toledo by 22.4	8%
Week 6 · Oct 10	at Northwestern	Northwestern by 33.0	2%
Week 7 · Oct 17	at Bowling Green	Bowling Green by 4.0	40%
Week 8 · Oct 24	vs Sacramento State	Ball State by 6.8	66%
Week 10 · Nov 4	at Massachusetts	Massachusetts by 12.3	23%
Week 11 · Nov 11	vs Buffalo	Ball State by 3.4	58%
Week 12 · Nov 17	at Ohio	Ohio by 16.8	16%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Central Michigan	Central Michigan by 2.4	44%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Ball State’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+0.06	+0.4
3rd & 4th downs	−0.04	−8.9

Luckiest wins

Wins Ball State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 6	vs Ohio	W 20–14	38%	+62
2025 Week 11	vs Kent State	W 17–13	40%	+60
2025 Week 8	vs Akron	W 42–28	51%	+49
2026 Week 2	vs Stony Brook	W 41–17	92%	+8
2025 Week 3	vs New Hampshire	W 34–29	96%	+4

Unluckiest losses

Losses Ball State would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 4	@ UConn	L 25–31	63%	−63
2025 Week 9	@ Northern Illinois	L 7–21	32%	−32
2025 Week 12	vs Eastern Michigan	L 9–24	18%	−18
2026 Week 4	@ Kent State	L 13–26	10%	−10
2025 Week 14	@ Miami (OH)	L 24–45	4%	−4

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	4–8	3.4	+0.6	3–1	–

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Purdue	L 0–31	1%	−1
Week 2	@ Auburn	L 3–42	0%	0
Week 3	vs New Hampshire	W 34–29	96%	+4
Week 4	@ UConn	L 25–31	63%	−63
Week 6	vs Ohio	W 20–14	38%	+62
Week 7	@ Western Michigan	L 0–42	0%	0
Week 8	vs Akron	W 42–28	51%	+49
Week 9	@ Northern Illinois	L 7–21	32%	−32
Week 11	vs Kent State	W 17–13	40%	+60
Week 12	vs Eastern Michigan	L 9–24	18%	−18
Week 13	@ Toledo	L 9–38	0%	0
Week 14	@ Miami (OH)	L 24–45	4%	−4