Ball State at Miami (OH), Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

Final

Ball State Cardinals	24
Miami (OH) RedHawks	45

November 29, 2025 · Yager Stadium · Closing line: Miami (OH) −16.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index +4 Miami (OH) about even · −4 Ball State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ball State wins 0, Miami (OH) wins 10.

1 BALL 10 M-OH 13
2 BALL 24 M-OH 34
3 BALL 17 M-OH 30
4 BALL 15 M-OH 31
5 BALL 20 M-OH 38
6 BALL 24 M-OH 45
7 BALL 6 M-OH 31
8 BALL 7 M-OH 35
9 BALL 17 M-OH 50
10 BALL 14 M-OH 62

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ball State wins 4% of them, Miami (OH) 96%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Miami (OH) by 21.

Actual: Miami (OH) by 21 494235282114707142128354249 ← Ball State win by Miami (OH) win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Ball State by 17+	0.2%
Ball State by 9–16	0.9%
Ball State by 1–8	2.3%
Level after regulation	0.8%
Miami (OH) by 1–8	7.8%
Miami (OH) by 9–16	12.5%
Miami (OH) by 17+	75.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

3rd & 4th downs +4% M-OH

Kicks +1% BALL

Pre-snap flags +1% M-OH

All luck +3% M-OH

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 points to Ball State: the final margin was Miami (OH) by 21, without the luck Miami (OH) by 21.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

D. Pippin, 43 yds made · 66% expected
D. Dzioban, 33 yds made · 88% expected

Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ball State 7 for 50 yards, Miami (OH) 7 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q1 12:53	False Start on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap	+1% M-OH +0.7 pts
Q1 8:56	Face Mask on Miami (OH), 5 yards	+1% BALL +1.0 pts
Q1 4:17	Holding on Ball State, 10 yards	+1% M-OH +0.9 pts
Q2 14:37	Offside on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap	0% BALL +0.6 pts
Q2 10:17	Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards	0% BALL +0.6 pts
Q2 6:56	False Start on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% M-OH +0.8 pts
Q2 3:33	Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards	0% BALL +0.6 pts
Q2 3:17	Holding on Ball State, 10 yards	0% M-OH +0.6 pts
Q2 2:00	Offside on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% M-OH +0.7 pts
Q2 0:52	False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap	0% BALL +0.2 pts
Q2 0:39	Holding on Ball State, 10 yards	0% M-OH +1.6 pts
Q3 13:37	False Start on Ball State, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% M-OH +0.5 pts
Q4 14:18	Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards	0% BALL +2.2 pts
Q4 3:12	False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap	0% BALL +0.8 pts

When it happened

Miami (OH)’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Miami (OH) 50% Ball State Q1Q2Q3Q4 14568

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Miami (OH) was ahead in it, below while Ball State was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 14:01	Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected	+3% M-OH	M-OH: Punt
2	Q1 13:00	Miami (OH) was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected	+1% BALL	M-OH: Punt
3	Q1 12:16	Ball State was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected	+1% M-OH	BALL: Punt
4	Q1 8:56	Face Mask on Miami (OH), 5 yardsJudgment calls	+1% BALL	BALL: Touchdown
5	Q1 6:26	Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected	+2% M-OH	M-OH: Touchdown
6	Q1 4:17	Holding on Ball State, 10 yardsJudgment calls	+1% M-OH	M-OH: Touchdown
7	Q1 2:34	Ball State was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expected	+1% M-OH	BALL: Field goal
8	Q1 2:30	D. Pippin made a 43-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him	+1% BALL	BALL: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Ball State · Miami (OH)

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