Week 14 2025 · November 25, 2025
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Western Michigan beat Eastern Michigan 31–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Western Michigan wins 5 of 10.
Before kickoff Western Michigan was a 74% favorite.
Final
 Western Michigan Broncos | 31 |
|---|---|
 Eastern Michigan Eagles | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +52 Western Michigan lucky · −52 Eastern Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Western Michigan wins 5, Eastern Michigan wins 5.
- 1 WMU 26 EMU 0
- 2 WMU 24 EMU 7
- 3 WMU 23 EMU 10
- 4 WMU 24 EMU 17
- 5 WMU 20 EMU 17
- 6 WMU 14 EMU 17
- 7 WMU 21 EMU 27
- 8 WMU 21 EMU 31
- 9 WMU 20 EMU 35
- 10 WMU 20 EMU 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Western Michigan wins 48% of them, Eastern Michigan 52%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Western Michigan by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Western Michigan by 17+ | 12.6% |
| Western Michigan by 9–16 | 13.5% |
| Western Michigan by 1–8 | 21.2% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Eastern Michigan by 1–8 | 20.6% |
| Eastern Michigan by 9–16 | 17.2% |
| Eastern Michigan by 17+ | 13.2% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Western Michigan 7 for 75 yards, Eastern Michigan 5 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:04 | Holding on Western Michigan, 10 yards | +6% EMU +3.2 pts |
| Q1 6:41 | False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% WMU +0.4 pts |
| Q1 3:38 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 7 yards | +3% WMU +1.4 pts |
| Q1 2:09 | False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WMU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 11:43 | Holding on Western Michigan, 10 yards | +6% EMU +2.5 pts |
| Q2 3:37 | Sideline Interference on Western Michigan, 5 yards | 0% EMU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 6:57 | Pass Interference on Western Michigan, 15 yards | +1% EMU +2.1 pts |
| Q3 2:24 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 8 yards | 0% WMU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on Eastern Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% EMU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 13:41 | Pass Interference on Western Michigan, 15 yards | 0% EMU +4.0 pts |
| Q4 6:41 | Personal Foul on Western Michigan, 15 yards, wiping out the play | 0% EMU +1.2 pts |
| Q4 6:09 | False Start on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% EMU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Eastern Michigan’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:04 | Holding on Western Michigan, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% EMU | EMU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 3:47 | Western Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +3% EMU | WMU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 3:38 | Holding on Eastern Michigan, 7 yardsJudgment calls | +3% WMU | WMU: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 0:48 | Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +8% EMU | EMU: Turnover |
| 5 | Q2 11:43 | Holding on Western Michigan, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% EMU | EMU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q2 10:28 | Western Michigan converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +3% WMU | WMU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 5:43 | Eastern Michigan converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected | +3% EMU | EMU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q3 10:23 | Eastern Michigan fumbled and Western Michigan recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% WMU | EMU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Western Michigan 84% · Eastern Michigan 16%
- Final margin
- Western Michigan by 10
- Luck in points
- 4.8 for Western Michigan
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Western Michigan by 5.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Western Michigan 48% · Eastern Michigan 52% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Western Michigan · 
Eastern Michigan
More from Week 14 2025
- Kent State at Northern Illinois KENT 35–31 · replay 56% for the winner
- Ohio at Buffalo OHIO 31–26 · replay 63% for the winner
- Toledo at Central Michigan TOL 21–3 · replay 70% for the winner
- Ball State at Miami (OH) M-OH 45–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bowling Green at Massachusetts BGSU 45–14 · replay 98% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner