luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 14 2025 · November 28, 2025

Kent State at Northern Illinois, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

Kent State beat Northern Illinois 35–31, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Kent State wins 6 of 10.

Before kickoff Northern Illinois was a 61% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:04 left): Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 15 yards, worth 14 points of win probability to Kent State.

Final

Kent State Golden Flashes 35
Northern Illinois Huskies 31

November 28, 2025 · Huskie Stadium · Closing line: Northern Illinois −4.5

Luck index +44 Kent State lucky · −44 Northern Illinois

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kent State wins 6, Northern Illinois wins 4.

  1. 1 KENT 45 NIU 17
  2. 2 KENT 27 NIU 7
  3. 3 KENT 35 NIU 21
  4. 4 KENT 38 NIU 28
  5. 5 KENT 34 NIU 28
  6. 6 KENT 34 NIU 31
  7. 7 KENT 17 NIU 20
  8. 8 KENT 27 NIU 34
  9. 9 KENT 24 NIU 38
  10. 10 KENT 10 NIU 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Kent State wins 56% of them, Northern Illinois 44%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kent State by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kent State by 17+17.1%
Kent State by 9–1617.0%
Kent State by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation2.6%
Northern Illinois by 1–822.9%
Northern Illinois by 9–1610.6%
Northern Illinois by 17+10.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.7 points to Kent State: the final margin was Kent State by 4, without the luck Kent State by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • W. Hryszko, 34 yds made · 80% expected
  • W. Hryszko, 28 yds made · 87% expected
  • A. Glass, 33 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Kent State 3 for 20 yards, Northern Illinois 3 for 32 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:19 Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 10 yards +2% KENT +0.8 pts
Q1 9:26 Holding on Kent State, 10 yards +2% NIU +1.0 pts
Q1 1:20 Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 7 yards +4% KENT +2.2 pts
Q4 8:01 Offside on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NIU +0.8 pts
Q4 5:04 Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 15 yards +14% KENT +2.1 pts
Q4 1:18 Illegal Substitution on Kent State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% KENT 0.0 pts

When it happened

Northern Illinois’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 91%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Northern Illinois was ahead in it, below while Kent State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:21 Northern Illinois fumbled and Kent State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% KENT NIU: Touchdown
2 Q3 8:56 Kent State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +5% NIU KENT: Field goal
3 Q4 13:57 Kent State fumbled and Northern Illinois recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% NIU KENT: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:51 Northern Illinois converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +6% NIU NIU: Punt
5 Q4 7:11 Northern Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +6% KENT NIU: Punt
6 Q4 5:04 Pass Interference on Northern Illinois, 15 yardsJudgment calls +14% KENT KENT: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:55 Northern Illinois converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +9% NIU NIU: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:28 Northern Illinois was stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% KENT –

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kent State 52% · Northern Illinois 48%

Final margin
Kent State by 4
Luck in points
3.7 for Kent State
Luck-adjusted margin
Kent State by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Kent State 56% · Northern Illinois 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Kent State · Northern Illinois

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