Week 14 2025 · November 25, 2025
Bowling Green at Massachusetts, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Bowling Green beat Massachusetts 45–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Bowling Green wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Bowling Green was an 82% favorite.
Final
 Bowling Green Falcons | 45 |
|---|---|
 Massachusetts Minutemen | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Bowling Green about even · −2 Massachusetts
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bowling Green wins 10, Massachusetts wins 0.
- 1 BGSU 56 MASS 10
- 2 BGSU 41 MASS 3
- 3 BGSU 34 MASS 0
- 4 BGSU 40 MASS 10
- 5 BGSU 37 MASS 10
- 6 BGSU 31 MASS 7
- 7 BGSU 30 MASS 10
- 8 BGSU 20 MASS 3
- 9 BGSU 27 MASS 14
- 10 BGSU 17 MASS 10
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bowling Green wins 98% of them, Massachusetts 2%. The line is what actually happened: Bowling Green by 31.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bowling Green by 17+ | 80.5% |
| Bowling Green by 9–16 | 11.1% |
| Bowling Green by 1–8 | 6.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Massachusetts by 1–8 | 1.3% |
| Massachusetts by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Massachusetts by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Bowling Green 2 for 15 yards, Massachusetts 1 for 7 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:50 | Holding on Bowling Green, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% MASS +1.3 pts |
| Q2 10:42 | Unnecessary Roughness on Massachusetts, 7 yards | 0% BGSU +1.2 pts |
| Q3 6:10 | Offside on Bowling Green, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MASS +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Massachusetts’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:31 | Bowling Green converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +1% BGSU | BGSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 14:20 | Massachusetts fumbled and Bowling Green recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% BGSU | MASS: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 0:58 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +1% MASS | MASS: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 13:40 | Massachusetts was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +1% BGSU | MASS: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 10:16 | Bowling Green converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +1% BGSU | BGSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 6:37 | Massachusetts converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +1% MASS | MASS: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q3 3:34 | Massachusetts was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +1% BGSU | MASS: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 3:04 | Massachusetts was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +1% BGSU | MASS: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bowling Green 100% · Massachusetts 0%
- Final margin
- Bowling Green by 31
- Luck in points
- 6.4 for Bowling Green
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bowling Green by 24.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Bowling Green 98% · Massachusetts 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Bowling Green · 
Massachusetts
More from Week 14 2025
- Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan WMU 31–21 · replay 48% for the winner
- Kent State at Northern Illinois KENT 35–31 · replay 56% for the winner
- Ohio at Buffalo OHIO 31–26 · replay 63% for the winner
- Toledo at Central Michigan TOL 21–3 · replay 70% for the winner
- Ball State at Miami (OH) M-OH 45–24 · replay 96% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner